Thursday, October 16, 2014

Guesstimates on October 16, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1790-1840. The S&P 500 and the Dow have dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  
QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Yields dropped below 2.00% support yesterday’ before snapping back to close above that level. Nonetheless, it now looks like the 10 year yield will drop further, probably to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

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