Thursday, October 09, 2014

Guesstimates on October 9, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1952-76. Yesterday’s fast rally was the second such rally starting from the same low point as the first. I think this is a sign of weakness going forward since the first rally didn’t hold up. I expect the ES to halt near the .618 retracement level near 1977 and begin a move which will take it below 1900.
QQQ: Downside target is 94.  
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the 2.25% yield will be strong support and an extended uptrend in yields is likely to start from there. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   Support is at 84 but I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650 and higher.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 103 but I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68 before going much higher than 103.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

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