Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Guesstimates on October 21, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1896-1918. Last week the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  The rally from last week’s low has been violent and fast, characteristic of rallies in a bear market.
QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is now at 96.
TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

1 comment:

Bill said...

Carl, that's a risky statement. i concur that with QE ending one would expect a sharp sell off into November once the market realizes there is no more QE fuel. However another school of thought is that this rally is no different from all the other rallies we had this year after a sell off, all fast and furious once the lows are hit. I guess the bigger question is whether bearish forces on the 10 year yield, oil, Europe, gold, and the US stock market have all disappeared and all these markets bottomed. A thesis can be made that the market had been at oversold levels not seen since 2011 and new rallies that have legs have begun in all these markets. The alternative is what you hold which I think makes sense that a bear market has started, but markets are irrational and never make sense. So it can go either way, who knows.