Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Guesstimates on October 7, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1938-56. Yesterday the ES spent most of its day session below 1966 and I think this means that it eventually will drop below 1918 sometime during the next week or 10 days. In the meantime I think the market will wander between 1918 and 1971
QQQ: Downside target is 94 unless and until the ES establishes itself above 1966.  
TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   Resistance above the market is at 95. I expect the market to move below 90 at least to 84.
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650 and higher.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 103 but I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68 before going much higher than 103.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
For what its worth:
based on the work of chris carolan
i could make the case for a top
which would call for a low near oct 21-23rd and also would fit into a seasonal bias to buy nov 7th
yet based on the work of steve puetz ?
tomorrows lunar eclipse is fitting into a similar category as the April low earlier this year. if it holds true tomorrow Oct 8th would produce a bottom of sorts .the puetz window is not even valid this year yet some people follow it so i mention it .
the typical movement of the market is a full moon high into a solar eclipse low then a bounce into the lunar eclipse then a hard drop . this year we are seeing the lunar eclipse then a solar eclipse which technically invalidates the crash pattern .
that said the april low was also on a lunar eclipse and if you look at the nasdaq and its pattern along with its time between swings in april as well as today you will see a similar theme ( a low would be about 8 trading days away if the decline phases were equal . yet tomorrow to me tells the tale . a further break down into oct 21-23rd is not out of the question at this juncture yet if we begin to turn up strongly Thursday id say we are probably looking at either a consolidation into feb 2015 or a significant break out to the upside from oct 27th -nov 7th and then much much higher prices when the 2 yr cycle turns up in mid feb 2015 .
should be an interesting few days .
good luck