Monday, March 10, 2008

Guesstimates on March 10, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis missed closing above the 1295 level by a point so for the moment I think there is a 50-50 chance that the market will drop to 1270 before beginning a move into the 1430-50 range. I still think that new bull market highs will be seen in the next few months.

QQQ: The 42.00 level is support and from there the Q’s will rally to 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are headed down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 118-04. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The market should soon reach 156. Meantime support is at 149.50.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the yen is headed for the 99.50 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market has reached 106 and I think a break of at least $20 will be the next development.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 920 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver will make it to 2200 and then begin a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

There is a good chance the decline ends today (+ or - 1 day). 194, 163, 147, and 102 trading day periods have been marking important turns in the DOW. (Examples: 5/06 peak to 2/07 peak = 194 days (+1), 2/07 peak to 11/07 low = 194, 2/07 peak to 10/07 top = 163, 3/07 low to 10/07 top = 147, 2/07 peak to 7/07 top = 102, 7/07 top to 12/07 peak = 102 (+1).) Today marks all four of those durations from significant turns, simultaneously. (194 from turn at 1st trading day of 6/07, 163 from 7/07 top, 147 from 8/07 small peak, and 102 from 10/07 top.)

Will Rahal said...

My 5-Day Momentum indicator is in "Buy Mode" and there are other positive divergences pointing to a imminent rally.

Anonymous said...

We are really oversold and due at least a week or so rally. But, I wouldn't get excited about anything other than that.

People who keep pointing to technical indicators as a great buying opportunity miss one point. Fundamentals DRIVE technicals. If you understand fundamentals, you understand why oversold in this environment is still very shaky ground to take a long position.

Anonymous said...


I have been reading your blog for a while and you were pretty spot on with your predictions during the bull run.

But off late, i am surprised by your stubbornness in sticking with your prediction for new highs in SPX, contrary to the market message. Market message has been one of continued weakness and continued downtrend. But you have been slipping down the slope of icy hope, with "hope" as your technical tool.

Look at the market internals and see what message it has been conveying. You have been publishing these 10 day SMA charts of the A/D line during the bull which accurately predcited the continuation of the bull run. Have you lately looked at those charts and seen what it's conveying ? It's one of weakness and further price erosion to come.

Is there anything technical that makes you beleive that new highs are coming in the SPX? If so, please share it with us. I am very interested.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

We did not close below the required 1292.60 for that second sell signal this past Friday. We missed it by a couple of ticks, close but no cigar. Today, I’ll need a close below 1285.40 in the March SP’s to give me that second sell signal confirmation. I’m still holding my short position from the first sell signal issued last Thursday with that close below 1309.00.

I realize a rally is certainly due, especially since the 5 day MA of the advances are screaming over sold, but we could still see that second confirmed sell signal.



Anonymous said...

One of W.D. Gann's favorite cycles was the 15 year cycle.

Today is 15 years from the large top of March 10, 1993.

If the SPX is going to pivot, today/tomorrow is a key date.

Anonymous said...

interesting posts today
ill add to this all of my work
called for the closing low
by thurday march 6th .
friday there was other timelines hitting which ran into today
i find it interesting that all of us are seeing the same dates .
for the record though if this market does not turn this week
im going to have to re think
a few things cause if this market fails to rally soon we will have to re visit the real bearish case
which implys dow 9700 .
this is becoming scary
lastly this week is the 21 week
cycle low which is due for goog
400 may get hit

Anonymous said...

last thought as i look at some longer term swings .
nasdaq 100 has a 11 month and 22 month cycle low which has been reliable that cycle typically brings in the lowest swing when both line up ( april 2008 )
the dow has some other cycles
begining april 1997 33 months up
to the closing high in dec 1999
33 months down to oct 2002
also there is a 66 month cycle
all point to april 2008 .
if that is going to be the low then we should brace ourselves for a move towards 10697.80
not what i want to see since my short term cycles as noted before
are calling for a low now
yet im not going to overlook this
if the mkt heads further to the downside
these cycles are worth looking at

Anonymous said...

can you please explain why you believe market is headed for new highs when we could possibly in a bear market? any reasoning besides the contrarian views based on newspapers and magazines? thanks