Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Guesstimates on June 10, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s should make a low near 1340 and then rally to 1500. Resistance today is again at 1375.

QQQ: The 48.00 level is support for the Q’s and I think the market will soon begin a rally to 54.00.

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 111. Resistance is at 117-28. I think TLT will drop to 88.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 111.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Long term resistance in the 135-37 range makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: It now looks like the low Google made near 538 will hold. Next upside target is 640.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

How do you determine long-term resistance at 137-ish for OIL when it managed to close above that level (at $139) on a weekly close?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

On 3/25/08 I posted on your blog the following:

"On the topic of time frame, my model is suggesting that this rally will last NO LONGER than another 9 weeks, and top out NO LATER THAN Wednesday, June 11th, but ONLY IF it runs its full distance in time until then. If the rally continues until that time and prices are above 1456.40 on that date, I will enter a short position on the opening of trading on June 11th or on the close of trading the previous day.

Meanwhile, if/when the next sell signal is generated prior to that time and/or price; I would like to post it here on your blog with your permission.

Many thanks.

Until then and with kindest regards,

3/25/2008 08:51:00 AM"

Well, I did receive a sell signal in the June contract at 1389.00 on Friday. I was traveling abroad and arrived home last night. Since we're now looking at June 11th tomorrow, I took a short position today in the September SP contract at 1365.00, it remains to be seen if this short will work for me. I was expecting to see 1456.40 traded before my sell signal, but 1440.00 is close enough since we're very near the June 11th deadline for this rally.

I have been long the June from 1278.00 and 1315.00 as posted on your blog on 3/20/08. I have now take profits on those positions.

Thank you.


Anonymous said...

the next couple days are important relating to crude oil id love to see it fall further , but the short term chart still allows for a move to the upside . as for the spx and dow , im long the dow and short oil ( oil index through options ) im begining to think that downward pressure on oil stocks will keep pressure on the spx , today the dow showed some muted strength yet they kept selling on the nyse and the spx
the oex showed better then the 3
and the xoi was the weekest and the bkx was actually a decent day
give me the impression that there is a fair amount of money moving all over which is coming out of oil related stocks and only just begining to move into the financials . this might take some time untill august before people have them selves re arrainged money wise . for me im taking the approach that the august high i was looking for will turn out to be an august low and the mkt will stay range bounce to lower over the coming weeks . very sort term
im mixed into wednesday next week
just keeping an open mind for now
and letting the market prove itself . 20 lows on the nyse have expanded both monday and today tuesday . im in one of those
wait an see modes , as for the short term trading , im not even going to touch it .
leaving my bets as is and will
let the mkt go where ever it wants .
good luck