Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Guesstimates on June 4, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I still think the market will reach 1360 in the next day or so but I now believe that the low of this reaction will be near 1340. From there I expect a move upward to 1500. Resistance today is at 1392.

QQQ: I think a drop to support at 46.50 is underway.

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 111. Resistance is at 117-28. I think TLT will drop to 88.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 111.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Crude is on its way into the 112-115 zone. Resistance above the market is at 134.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I still think Google will drop to 515 or so before resuming its uptrend.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

Great blog and great work! Without giving away your "secrets", could you pls provide some visuals on charts as to why you think the reaction low for the ES will be around the 1340 level?

Anonymous said...

this morning bounce in the dow caried it back above yesterdays late swing high , this implies the dow probably bottomed june 3rd
if you look at the past reactions with in wave 4's todays highs in the dow failed on the bearish case
this adds to my argument that
we just saw a bottom .i dont think 1340 will be seen in the spx
good work carl
but i think te trend just changed from down to up

Anonymous said...

This weeks Birinyi Blogger Poll results are

"76% OUT of the market"

Could see strong rally here

Anonymous said...

looks like im wrong about june 3rd being the bottom , 1340 on the sp 500 though in my work just gives a more bearish picture . i think the wave form in the dow is nothing more then several overlaps impliing downside momentum is running dry . if im wrong here then a strong move towards 1340 as you suggest would bring me to projecting pt 27 at the may highs
on the dow which would then call for 9700 on the dow . not something im looking for at this point even if valid .
ill keep my powder hedged for now
and let the mkt run its course over the next several days
and make my call on friday / monday as that is where my cycles turn up