Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Guesstimates on June 24, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s dropped this morning to within 8 points of support which stands at 1300. My best guess now is that we will a trading range develop over the next two or three days from which a rally to 1500 will begin.

QQQ: I now think the Q’s will drop into the 45-46 range before this reaction is complete.

TLT - September Bonds: I don’t see any sign of an important low shaping up so I think the bonds will drop to 109-110 before turning upward again. TLT has nearly reached its 88 target.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached the 111 level but there is still no sign of a significant low. I think the market will continue down to 109.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone. A close above 140 will change my mind about this prognosis and mean that the market is headed for 160-165.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I think Google will drop into the 500-510 range before this reaction ends.


Phil L said...

Found your blog about 2 mos ago and read each market morning. Find it very helpful. Thanks.
Do you see a reasonable probability that 1250 is the support number rather than 1300?

Anonymous said...


I am hard pressed to believe that the comments on your postings have virtually dried up. But that phenomenom coincides with something that I read last night on the blog of Barry Ritholtz. Apparently Barry has kept a "page visit indicator" that shows an increase in traffic as the longs get more desperate in a large bearish downturn. He too has noticed that this time around the traffic to his blog has been reduced, just as I've noticed that the daily commentary on your page has been reduced. I've been contemplating what this can possibly mean, and the only conclusions are..either people are not too concerned or they've given up. Most people expect the "Bottom to drop out" of this market, and that the lows are further ahead. Somehow this belief is what explains the less than expected traffic - we haven't yet seen "uttter FEAR". Ever patient.

Anonymous said...

Jose, the comments have dried up because Carl has stopped reporting his trades, in my opinion a GREAT thing. His timing/support/resistance calls have helped me over the last 2 years.

On another note, Carl, does the Fed decision on interest rates factor in your rally?


Anonymous said...

actually blog traffic is a great contrarian indicator. So is the vix put call and exchange volume none of these have shown any signs of panic. There is some good bearishness in some of the sentiment surveys but that is more bullish 1-3 months out. I could see us blowing some serious chow here as a lot of people are looking for suppport in these areas. Look at the vix indicator it is at it's 10 day ma. If we rally 15-25 sp pts on the fed it is going to get overbought . Thats not good for a market that has steadily sold down. There is no panic. Thats a huge problem. We won't bottom till we get some be it 1300-1250 or 1220 or even thats right folks 1175 the 50% retracement!