Monday, June 16, 2008

Guesstimates on June 16, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s have nearly reached the 1365 level and I think the next significant move from here will be downward. There is still room for the market to rally all the way up to strong resistance at 1375 but this would not change the prognosis for a drop to 1300 over the next couple of weeks. In any event I still expect a move up to 1500 once the drop from the May 19 top ends near 1300.

QQQ: I now think the Q’s will drop into the 45-46 range before this reaction is complete.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are getting close to their 111 target but as yet I see no sign of an important low shaping up. TLT has nearly reached its 88 target.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached the 111 level but there is still no sign of a significant low. I think the market will continue down to 109.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I now think Google will drop into the 500-510 range before this reaction ends.


Anonymous said...

This is a response to the anonymous comment made on Firday Jun 13th about what Warren Buffet says. His whole point rests on "in aggregate" ... yes, while the 'average' performance of active investors/traders may not be more than a passive index fund, we do have many successful traders/investors. When you take things in aggregate, you will miss many success stories. In aggregate profits don't grow more than the economy, but you still find businesses growing hand over foot, ie Google. In aggregate, people of the world are still poor, but in the U.S. we have massive wealth. So please do not try to water down the efforts of traders/ active investors, as there are many successful ones out there. You might become one of them through perseverance.

P.S. Mr. Buffett is not God.

Rick M.

BH_Trade said...

Sustained strength in the small caps and mid caps backs up your longer-term bullish view. But S&P is going to have a tough time getting anywhere near 1300 unless those high betas begin to lose some relative strength.