Friday, June 13, 2008

Guesstimates on June 13, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s dropped as low as 1333 yesterday but I think the market will rally to 1365 or so before it resumes its drop to the 1300 level. I have been looking for bullish divergences in the advancing issues moving averages but none have shown up thus far. In any event I still expect a move up to 1500 once the drop from the May 19 top is complete.

QQQ: I now think the Q’s will drop into the 45-46 range before this reaction is complete.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are getting close to their 111 target but as yet I see no sign of an important low shaping up. TLT has nearly reached its 88 target.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 111.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I now think Google will drop into the 500-510 range before this reaction ends.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

With all my respect you have already have changed your S&P guesstimate and will do so for crude in a short while to 145.I don't think any method really has an edge over buy/sell & hold. Thanks

Anonymous said...

This is what Buffet comments on the hedge fund

Buffett’s Argument
A lot of very smart people set out to do better than average in securities markets. Call them active investors.
Their opposites, passive investors, will by definition do about average. In aggregate their positions will more or less approximate those of an index fund. Therefore the balance of the universe—the active investors—must do about average as well. However, these investors will incur far greater costs. So, on balance, their aggregate results after these costs will be worse than those of the passive investors.
Costs skyrocket when large annual fees, large performance fees, and active trading costs are all added to the active investor’s equation. Funds of hedge funds accentuate this cost problem because their fees are superimposed on the large fees charged by the hedge funds in which the funds of funds are invested.
A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors. Investors, on average and over time, will do better with a low-cost index fund than with a group of funds of funds.

Sam said...

Hi Carl,

Once again, your calls have been right on the money. SPY's hit 136.52 going in to the close on a short squeeze manipulation (at least that's what it looked like to me). Now, just waiting for the last leg down to 130 or so as you project. We'll see how big the pop will be from those levels.

Thanks for all your great work.


Anonymous said...

hi carl
just a note to say keep up the good work . as the poster aove noted abot those who over trade will nuetalise them selves they forget to note that tos who enter and exit and wait even if bearish will lower there risk and on a risk adjusted level will reduce risk and increase gains . as for those who put theremoney in hedge funds , i agree that te fee's imposed on there investments far outway the gains .

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

if you get a chance, can you update on Chinese market and also on individual stocks you used to post about if you don't mind? THNX