Friday, June 20, 2008

Guesstimates on June 20, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s are headed for 1300. Resistance today is still at 1350. Once the market makes its low near 1300 I think it will move up to 1500.

QQQ: I now think the Q’s will drop into the 45-46 range before this reaction is complete.

TLT - September Bonds
: The bonds are getting close to their 111 target but as yet I see no sign of an important low shaping up. TLT has nearly reached its 88 target.

September 10 Year Notes
: The notes have reached the 111 level but there is still no sign of a significant low. I think the market will continue down to 109.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude
: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone.

GLD - August Gold
: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I think Google will drop into the 500-510 range before this reaction ends.


Anonymous said...


I've notice that there aren't many comments being posted...Is it because you are not approving the comments, or are people genuinely not posting..i would've imagined that at this point, there should be a deluge of cheers and rants..if this support level holds i think we are at point 14 in the 3 peaks and domed house formation on the $INDU, and the $SPX. I have a question, perhaps you can provide some clarity. Is it possible that the indices are at various stages of a 3PDH formation. For instance if you look at the $DJI, $DJT, $DJU, and the $DJA(dow jones composite), it looks like the $DJA is approaching point 16(the point 15 was reached at the level of the 3 peaks(point 7 (4600))) while the $DJI is approaching point 14.

Anonymous said...

The "teacup" low in bonds for the past week looks like a possible bottom to me.

Win said...

Carl, with respect, do you think Google will drop to 500-510 but the Qs will stay around 45-46? Is that possible? Also, could SPX stay at 1300 if Google were to hit 500?

I very much respect your skills, but am impressed with 540-550 support for Google, and am considering going long at these levels.

Anonymous said...

Looks DOW's 74 trend line is broken, a free fall is expected.
The top of recent rally stopped from 82 trend line and 2002 trend line

Anonymous said...


I believe the DOW began in May the third leg of a very large 3-wave correction from 10/07, thus headed for new lows and producing a major bottom about late July where MANY time "clusters" reside. Such event will "be the meaning behind" the many Fibo. relationships surrounding 2008, including that it is 76 years from 1932. Therefore, I don't envision the E-mini stopping at 1300, except temporarily.

Anonymous said...

Maybe can we are in a BIG three and domed house 1998-2008,then can are in 28 point to 7500-8000 dow jones to finally year?ufff