Monday, June 30, 2008

Guesstimates on June 30, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market bounced off of 1272 support Friday. I still think it is in the process of making a low above the March 1253 low. If I am right about this we soon should see a rally at least to 1305 and more probably to 1320 or so. The bullish divergence in the 10 day moving average of advancing issues disappeared Friday but a similar divergence in the 5 day moving average still persists. The longer term oscillators shown on the MY CHARTS link on the right hand side of this blog are also showing bullish divergences relative to the low levels reached in March. I still think that the next big move will be upward to 1500.

: I think the Q’s will hold support in the 45-46 range and then begin a rally to 55.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are now headed upward to 118-00.

September 10 Year Notes
: The notes are now headed for 117-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165.

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000.

SLV - July Silver
: Resistance above the market is at 1760. It is holding so far but a close above there will turn me bullish.

Google: GOOG will drop into the 500-510 range and will then begin a move to 750 or above.


Unknown said...

Great charts and analysis for today, but what about the bearish calls for the market?

Anonymous said...

I think you have been wrong before with the market sentiment--it obviously feels like something has to give--oil has to break--the confidence in the financials have to come back--its not happening in the next 2 days--we could see < 1250

Win said...

I'll ask the obvious question; if Oil is headed to 160, can the market rise? Can we even get a real short-term rally? If Oil keeps rising this week to meet MS target of $150 by July 4, how can we get the ST SP rally to 1305?

One possibility I see is for a rocket rise to $150-160; the last pop of the bubble, accompanied by new lows in the indexes. Then we can go up.