Monday, January 11, 2010

Guesstimates on January 11, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1137-1150. I think a break of 30-40 points is imminent. I also think the ES will trade up at least to 1170 and probably above 1200 over the next six weeks.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 585.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

The unemployment numbers may continue to look dismal, but also in this past month there were 47,000 new temporary jobs created, this is the third consecutive increase in new temporary jobs created. This is not a lagging indicator, I believe this is a leading indicator of where the so called recovery is, if there is one at all. In any down turn, the temps are the first to get fired, and in any recovery phase the temps are the first to get hired. I think this may well be a legitimate sign and justification for these markets to continue higher.


Kindest regards,


Bill said...

The breaks in this market have been less than 15 points and always recovering either intra-day or the next day.

I don't see this pattern breaking unless there is a disappointment in earnings or the market overshoots (which hasn't happened since the market when it moves up it does so in very small increments).

At some point there will be a larger break but it may not happen before the S&P overshoots to 1230 or 1250.

This rally seems reminiscent of the Summer rally that started off the July lows. It has more to go before it comes to an end.

Anonymous said...

The July rally started when ES slammed into the 200 day moving average.

The current rally started on Dec 18 when ES hit only the 40 day moving average.

Because the current rally did not start from a low enough support, comparison of the current rally with the July rally may not be valid.

I concur with Carl that we will go lower first. The only remaining question is how low? The 200 day moving average is currently at 1015.

Anonymous said...

Very interesting cycle study!