Monday, January 04, 2010

Guesstimates on January 4, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1108-1122. I think that the ES is still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.


khoekz said...

Carl, any thoughts on the strong buying this morning? I just went short, buying SPXU at 34.70, with a pretty tight stop.

My guess is that we trade sideways from here for the rest of the day, and then gap down a bit tomorrow, hopefully selling off through the day.

Anyway, any thoughts? Perhaps a chart?

Thanks and happy new year

PM said...

Hi Carl,

We had a confirmed sell signal on Friday, but it was very short lived. A close today above 1124.50 will confirm a buy signal and would indicate that the selling is over for now.


Kindest regards,