Thursday, January 28, 2010

Guesstimates on January 28, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1092-1105. I can't tell whether yesterday's low ended the correction or whether instead the ES will take out that low by a few points before a sustained rally begins. Strength on good volume above the 1105 level will mean that yesterday's low will hold. I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

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