Thursday, January 21, 2010

Guesstimates on January 21, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1124-1136. I still think a reaction to 1110 and more probably to 1090 is underway. Once it is over I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the subsequent couple of months.

QQQ: Support is at 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 565.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

Here we go again. A close today below 1126.80 will give me a confirmed sell signal.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

1090, here we come!

Carl you have been right on!

Win said...

Carl, I think 1110 will be the bottom for today. I bought a few calls in QQQQ, with a stop under 1110 ES.

Urban Carmel said...

A great call Carl. I'm glad you stuck to your guns.

I wonder if the cash market is finding support near 1118, or if this is only the first impulse wave down. An update would be helpful!