Thursday, January 14, 2010

Guesstimates on January 14, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1136-1150. A break of 30-40 points is likely to start by early next week. After it is over I think the ES will trade up above 1200 over the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 565.


Bill said...

The market seems to be very resilient in the light of bad news. Alcoa disappointed after hours on Monday, market sells on Tuesday only to recover its losses by Wednesday. Today in the pre-market retail sales disappoint big time, employment claims do the same. If this slew of bad news can't dent the market (other than minimally and it recovers tomorrow), then it looks to me this market has further to go up.

Intel and JP Morgan will set the tone for Friday and the start of next week.

solrac said...


About your chart-list explanation yesterday, thanks.

Can you categorize it?

Is it essential and definitive for your conclusions or merely confirmatory & supportive?


fishonhook said...

Hi Carl

Just picked up on this site and I
Appreciate your daily targets and your commentary.

Two things you pint too which I agree with but I wonder if the time frames are different:

1) Market to 1200. Bonds yields rise.

2) USD dollar rises and Gold/ Oil drop.

I dont think 1 can happen with 2, can it. Maybe 1 happens and then 2.

Any thoughts? and thanks agin for the bloig.

hayfield said...

For a long time now you have been spot on with your prices and excellent calls. Once we obtain your 1200+ price range, what's next for the SPX? A sizable correction?

Win said...

Not sure if Carl will respond, but I will, perhaps gratuitously.

I think the USD will rise first, to about 80 (perhaps to EURUSD 137.5, as Carl says) and the market, Gold and Oil will drop (within the next 1-3 weeks). Then, post-correction, the market will rise to 1200 or beyond.