Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Guesstimates on January 26, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1076-1094. I am looking for a low this week either near 1075 or near 1058. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


Unknown said...


I was wondering if you could comment about how the current position of the S&P fits into the guidelines for the Aggressive Contrarian as outlined by your book. I believe you suggested a move from "normal" to "above normal" allocation when (a) the S&P closes below its 50 day MA which it has and (b) when it is within 1% of the 200 MA. This would currently have the S&P going to ~1010. Perhaps you could clarify this point a bit more as it appears you are suggesting an above-normal allocation well in advance of such a move. thanks

PortlockTrader said...

Hi Carl - Love your blog and the RSS feeds. In the process of reading your book and I must say it is a refreshing read. Nicely done with the oil call just as it was making a top.

Regarding your target low between 1075 and 1058 on the ES, how are you coming up with this target?

Also, I am curious as to your thoughts on the Elliott Wave Theory. The most renowed EWT follower, Bob Prechter, is pounding the table to go extremely short now and that the market is starting a MAJOR down leg (wave 3). No doubt that fear sells these days, but in your career how have you seen the EWT used as an indicitave tool?

Thanks for your thoughts and your time. Good luck trading!

Best regards,
Jeff from Chicago

All good..all good said...

Hi Carl,
I am in the process of reading your book again....and over again. Sorry I did not get into Yale....not even close...lol.
Thanks for helping us all out.

Urban Carmel said...

I think the correction is over and we'll move up to 1130.