Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Guesstimates on January 19, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1124-1136. The break which started from 1148 should carry the market down to 1110 and more probably to 1090 by the end of the month. After it is over the ES will trade up above 1200 over the next couple of months.

QQQ: Support is at 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 565.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close today below 1129.70 will give me a confirmed sell signal. If so, then the first initial support price would be 1118.20 (give or take a few ticks) and then 1089.60 (give or take a few ticks) presuming the market actually gets down to those prices. These are not targets, these are support points where a highly spirited and trade-able rally would occur ONLY IF the market does reach those price points, according to my model.


Kindest regards,


Win said...

Thanks, PM. This is helpful. I wasn't looking at those support points, but I will now.

andi said...

looks like carl (even carl!) could be too bearish here..UP UP UP & AWAY

Unknown said...

strong market this morning. I break above Thursday's highs means we're headed up. That is a big 'if' here. Right now the S&P is roughly right at the bottom of the old support line from December 2009, which now serves as resistance.

PM said...


You're most welcome. You may not see any obvious support points at those prices on a standard chart, these price points are based on a mathematical formula with no regard to the actual visual chart. But, they definitely exist and are there and will trigger heavy buying if the market touches those prices.

My best regards,


Win said...

Thanks, PM. Actually, there is support at both those points on a standard chart. What I meant to say was that I wasn't looking at those with any special significance; now I will. Thank you again.

Carl, the strong tape today suggests that we may go up to new highs before we break.

Shanky said...

We're pretty much seeing things the same. I have 1214 as SPX range. and have liked $55 oil for a long time. Thanks for you great work.