Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Guesstimates on January 13, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1132-1142. I think the ES will rally to 1150 or so. After that a break of 30-40 points is likely to develop. I also think the ES will trade up at least to 1170 and probably above 1200 over the next six weeks.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 585.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close today below 1137.60 will give me a confirmed sell signal.


Kindest regards,


andi said...

Below ES1128, H&S,,could be swift down to ES1112

dreadwinaard said...

Carl, GOOG went as low as 573.90 (so far) today on 'bad news' out of China.