Thursday, June 15, 2006

Guesstimates on June 15, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at 1229 yesterday. Support today is at 1238 and I think the market will rally at least to 1255 today and possibly higher. This in turn should be the first phase of a move to new bull market highs.  

September Bonds: The bonds have nearly reached support at 106-28 but the move down looks like only the first phase of a three phase correction. I expect a rally to 107-20 or so followed by a third phase drop to 106-04. Over the next few weeks the market should reach the 110-111 zone.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes broke well below 105-10 today in what looks like only the first phase of a three phase correction. Support is at 104-30 and a second phase rally should reach 105-16. I expect the third phase low to develop around 104-20. I expect the market to rally over the next few weeks into the 107-108 zone.  

Euro-US Dollar: I still think this market has a good shot at reaching the 126.90 level before it drops to 124.30 which is the next short term downside target. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support around 114.30 and then rally to 117.00 or so. The market is in the early stage of  a move to 130.  

July Crude: The market should reach 66.50 soon. Resistance today is at 70.50.

August Gold: Gold has completed a three phase rally to resistance at 582 and now will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.

July Silver: Silver has completed a three phase rally to resistance near 1015 and now should drop to a more important low in the 920-30 range. Resistance above the market today is at 1015.

Google:  Support is at 380 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 410. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

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