S&P

Here is a 15 minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the 1255 level would be support today and that the market would soon reach the 1282 level. I thought that the move down to 1255 would take a typical three phase form which would indicate that it was corrective in nature. But as you can see the market has dropped from yesterday's high of 1268.50 to 1254.50 in a straight line without even a hint of an intervening second phase rally.

I must conclude that the move up from 1254.50 will only be a second phase rally which will probably end near 1262. After that I am looking for a third phase break which will carry to 1243, my original target for the correction from the June 15 high. A low at 1243 would give the whole drop from 1270.75 on June 15 a clear and very symmetrical three phase appearance.

Once the 1243 low is in place I expect the market to move up to 1282.