Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Guesstimates on June 27, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Friday’s action convinced me that the market is headed up to 1282. Today the 1255 level is support. I also think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at the June 14 low of 1229. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: The bonds have dropped close to the 105-12 target. From that level a rally of 25-30 ticks is likely but then the swing down from 108-16 should resume.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably drop to 103-24 before a rally of more than 15 ticks develops.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the market’s next swing will be downward from yesterday’s 126.18 high. The next downside target is 124.30. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The yen didn’t quite make it to 117.00 resistance but now appears ready to drop to 115.50 or so. The market is in the early stage of a move to 130.

August Crude: The market has moved well past resistance at 70.80 but should stop near 72.90. After this rally I expect a break below 68.00.

August Gold: Resistance today is at 595. Gold has now completed a three phase rally and will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.

July Silver: Resistance today is at 1045. I am expecting a drop to am important low in the 920-30 range.

Google: Support is at 385 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 430. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

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