Here is the five minute bar chart of e-mini action today. The market has dropped to the low of my estimated range. Volume is low and there is less than an hour left of floor trading. People seem disinterested in this market.Even though we are at the low of the estimated range, I don't see any other reason to take a position here. There is no sign of any sort of volume climax - nor is there any sign of an attempt to make higher lows or of a false downside breakout. So I think that not much will happen during the rest of the session.
However I also think that Monday will turn out to be a bullish day.
18 comments:
Thanks again Carl for your updates. It appears the market is trying to rally here. Have a great weekend!
carl
i added my 2nd bullish position today at 1211 pacific time with the cash spx at 668.02 there is another cycle i dug into today
which are bullish cycle going back from 1999 it turns up monday ,
so far looks like im ok on my trade today . we need to consider this bear market as both bottoming or entirely over right now
joe
way to many bullish cycles begining now
thanks so much for your good work and insightful commentary. Enjoy your weekend and we'll pick it up on the flipside.
Spot on range estimates once again. 667 ended up being a perfect place to cover some shorts although i didn't have the gumption to go long. Thanks Carl.
To paraphrase Carl, "Demand Shock!" :)
Hopefully it is a little more than MM cleaning out stops so that we can have some sort of rally next week.
Thanks for all your great work!
Best regards,
Sam
I was skeptic but it reached 665. Well Done Carl.
I bought the nasdaq while the s&p was at 665, i'm bullish for monday. Bye Bye
//AR - Italy
Even though you didn't take the trade, it doesn't negate the fact that your analysis was spot on -again.
EDS
Carl,
thank you for the week! It has been a great learning experience for me. Also for doing statistics! I am a novice and not copying your trades. But for sure, your explanations and insights help me develop my view and improve my trading. You are contributing hugely (in my opinion) to development of novices like me. And you are not asking money. Those who are serious about their education in trading surely share my opinion. Have a nice one!!! Greetings from Germany, Val
HEY CARL
thought id add another thought to consider using the $nya index
from the 1974 bottom at 347.77
to the oct 2007 high at 10387.17
this index rallied 10039.4 pts
a .618 price retracement targets
the price level of 8182.82
friday march 6th low was 4181.75
only 1.07 pts below a perfect fibonacci retracement of the entire 33 year bull market .with the 2 year cycle im following calling for its low pretty much right now this price level on the nyse should be important going forward .
joe
ok try this one
http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/main.asp
just made a goog acc so i can start following you. thanks again.
whackjob, what a loser! obviosly just another jealous person too imature to put hard work in! those things are like noise in the mkt. just filter it out.
regards, m.
p.s. you are one of the few professionals who aren't using hindsight in there analysis. it takes a lot of conviction to do that imho. good on you!!
Wow, Carl! Your crystal ball came on again! What did you do - take a vacation?
Isn't it interesting that the bull appears just when you stopped calling for it on your morning posts? Maybe the bull was mad at you? In any case, I am long, so please just don't call for it for a few more days! For at least one week, don't say: "I think that a big bull market is about to start!"
;)
Thanks for all you do. I am learning a lot from your trading ranges. You are a wonderful teacher, and a terrific human being.
so all of you are bullish
for monday. that means is
will go further down.
Carl, you have not announced
a major rally lately, which
was always a contrarian sign
for the market as it only knows
one direction.
This market is just too bullish. Look at the put/call ratio today at CBOE. 0.87. Everybody is looking for the bottom. On Monday, Mr. Market is going to gap down 2%. New target, bottom of bollinger band of SPX 656.
next LOW is scheduled for 26-29 Mar, Venus/Earth cycle.
Carl,
Please keep up the good work! Don't let the idiots get you down. I would say from past comments that you have helped a lot of people. This means it is all well worth it.
Regards,
John
Hi Carl,
I suspect we'll rally into expiration.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl,
I forgot to mention that these markets have reached their downside buy zones, this is why I believe a rally should begin.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
carl - hope you don't filter out too many negative comments! i found them to be a very good indicator of ST bottoms (1-2 weeks).
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