Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Never mind!
Here is an updated hourly bar chart of day session e-mini trading. A couple of hours ago I said that the high volume, down side break from the trading range of the past two days meant that the e-minis were headed for 1020. But the picture has changed dramatically since then.The e-minis have rallied past the breakout point (dotted horizontal red line) and above the midpoint of the day's range so far (at 1051). This should never happen if the break earlier today represented selling by longer time frame traders. Instead I now conclude that that selling was done by weak longs and by aggressive bears. And the buying this morning (on bad news) was done by longer time frame traders. The implication is that this mornings shake out strengthened the technical condition of the market. A move to 1091 (the top of the green dash trend channel and the dash red line at the next significant midpoint resistance) is now underway.
Headed for 1020
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The Chicago purchasing managers number came out at 9:40 am this morning and triggered a high volume, downside breakout from the trading range of the past two days (blue rectangle and red arrows). I think this means that the drop from the September 23 top at 1075.75 has further to go.I have drawn a descending trend channel on this chart. Over the next couple of days it reaches down roughly to 1020. There is midpoint support at 1015. I now believe that this correction will end late this week or early next in the 1015-1020 range (green oval).
Guesstimates on September 30, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1070. I think a move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.05%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of e-mini day session trading. I think the drop from this morning' s early high at 1065.75 is over. It held support indicated by the purple dotted line and was about 12 points in extent - normal for a strong uptrend that carried upward 30 points without a significant reaction.Over the next week the market should rally to the top of its current trend channel (green dash lines). There is midpoint resistance at 1091 so its coincidence with the upper channel line means that the market will encounter strong (though temporary) resistance there. It is also worth noting that if today's high marks the midpoint of the current upward swing then the market should soon reach the 1094 level (purple rectangles).
Guesstimates on September 29, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1052-1070. I think a move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.05%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Morning update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The reaction low was established last night at the 1035.75 level (not shown on this chart). This morning the market has moved sharply higher and has moved above resistance shown by the purple dotted line. This looks like a breakout from the trading area established last Thursday and Friday between 1036 and 1049. At this juncture the 1049 level should act as support.I have drawn a new trend channel based on Friday's day session low and the low of September 2. During the next few days the top of the channel will move up to the next significant midpoint resistance level at 1091 (horizontal red dash line). This is the midpoint between the May 2008 high at 1442 and the November 2008 low at 739. So I think the next stop for this market will be this resistance level.
Looking further ahead I still think the e-minis will have traded at 1120 by the end of October.
Guesstimates on September 28, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1040-1055. The e-minis dropped as low as 1035.75 in electronic trading last night and I think there is a good chance that the drop from 1075 is complete. In any case I expect a move to 1120 to begin this week.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.05%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I have adjusted the trend channel slightly (green dash lines) to account for the fact that the high so far was made after the Fed news on Wednesday. I see strong support in the 1030-35 zone (purple oval) and I think we shall see an important low develop there early next week.At the moment midpoint resistance stands at 1045 (purple dotted line). Much stronger midpoint resistance stands at 1054 (higher horizontal red dash line). Any strength above that level would mean that a move to 1120 is underway.
I still think the 1120 level will be reached by the end of October. If enough divergences show up at that time I will start looking for a break of 100 points or so before the bull market resumes. But it is still too early to make any trading plans based on the possibility of such a break.
Guesstimates on September 25, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1035-1050. I expect the e-minis to hold support near 1035 and spend the next few sessions trading sideways before a rally to 1120 begins.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Morning update
Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. A supply shock hit the market after yesterday's Fed news and it strengthened this morning after the pit open. Such shocks can be identified by their unusually high volume and uncorrected price movement (red oval and arrows). In this context I think this supply shock is telling us that the corrective move which started yesterday will probably last four or five trading sessions (by my count today is the first day of the correction). So I expect a low sometime around the middle of next week.The 1035 level still looks like pretty good support. It is the level of the last significant high on the way up and coincides with the lower green dash channel line. If the market should break through that support my plan B support is at 1015, the midpoint between the 1291 high in September 2008 and the 739 low in November of 2008. In either case I expect the next up swing to carry the market to 1120 or so by the end of October.
Guesstimates on September 24, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1050-1065. I expect the e-minis to drop to 1035 during the next few days, then start a rally to 1120.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Post Fed update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. After the Fed news the market rallied to just above the top of today's range estimate at 1075. The move up from Monday's early low has been a struggle and I think this means that the market is about to break 35-40 points from current levels. This would bring it down to support at the lower channel line and the last significant top near 1035.Once this reaction has recharged the market's batteries I expect a swing up to the long standing target at 1120.
Guesstimates on September 23, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1060-75. I still think the e-minis will be trading in a range between 1035 and 1075 for the next few days. After this consolidation period ends the market will begin a move to the 1120 level.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Update
Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied gudgingly from yesterdays low near 1052. I cannot really tell if the e-minis are likely to head down to 1035 from here or whether instead the market will rally to 1080 first and then break to 1035. In any case I don't yet have a compelling reason for thinking that a move outside of the 1035-75 range can be sustained for any length of time. And I do think the market will visit the low side of this range before a move to 1120 develops.Tomorrow the Fed announcement comes out at 2:15 ET. My best guess is that we close tomorrow about where we close today after the usual Fed gyrations are out of the way.
Guesstimates on September 22, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1070. I still think the e-minis will be trading in a range between 1035 and 1075 for the next few days. After this consolidation period ends the market will begin a move to the 1120 level.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied from its low today about the same amount as the previous rally on the way down from its temporary high at 1071.50 (purple rectangles). This action, especially coming after the break of the steep, red dash trend line is telling us that the odds now favor a drop below the 1050 level today and eventually a move to 1035. The market should find good support near 1035 at the conjunction of an previous top (horizontal red dash line) and the lower green trend channel line.However, it is important to remember that the underlying trend is upward. So if we should see strength above the 1062 level I will start looking for a move to the upper trend channel line which stands roughly at 1080 at the moment.
Guesstimates on September 21, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1045-1060. I think the e-minis will be trading in a range between 1035 and 1075 for the next few days. After this consolidation period ends the market will begin a move to the 1120 level.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Quick note
Guesstimates on September 18, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1070. I think the e-minis will be trading in a range between 1035 and 1075 for the next few days. After this consolidation period ends the market will begin a move to the 1120 level.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
35 point break underway
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market was more active and volatile this morning than it has been all the way up from the 987 low in early September. There was midpoint resistance at 1064 and the October 2008 rally high was 1067 (higher horizontal red dash line). The market took out that high and then sellers took over. This looks like a temporary top to me. I think a break of about 35 points is starting and should carry the market down to its late August high near 1035.I expect the initial break off the high to stop near 1055, about where the steep, red dash trend line is currently found. This initial break should be followed by a rally back close to today's high (or even a little above it). The final leg down in the reaction should then carry to 1035 which in a few days would also be roughly the level of the lower channel line.
Once this correction is complete I expect the e-minis to resume their move to the 1120 level.
Guesstimates on September 17, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1052-1068. I still think a break of 40 points or so will begin within a day or two. I also expect the e-minis to reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. Today the market showed more strength than I expected when it moved a couple of points above the high of my range estimate of 1057. This also put it visibly above the upper parallel line for the bullish trend channel. The market is trading above midpoint resistance at 1054 (lower dash red line)but the midpoint between the September 2008 top at 1291 and the October 2008 low at 837 stands at 1064 (higher dash red line). Moreover, the electronic high in the e-minis for the rally which followed the 837 low was 1067. The market is digging into strong resistance and I still think the e-minis are likely to stall near current levels and then break to midpoint support near 1011 (purple dotted line).
Guesstimates on September 16, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1040-1057. Midpoint resistance at 1054 should produce a break of 30-40 points. I still expect the e-minis to reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver has almost reached 1700. Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. As the market approaches its upper trend channel line as well as midpoint resistance at 1054 (horizontal red dash line) it has lost much of the pace of its early advance from the 987 low of early September. The red dotted trend lines I have drawn on the chart are converging rapidly and this I think is a sign that a break of 30-40 points will begin within a day or two.Any such break should hold midpoint support near the 1011 level (purple dotted line).
Guesstimates on September 15, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1035-1050. Midpoint resistance at 1054 should produce a break of 30-40 points. I still expect the e-minis to reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Late Update
Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market proved to be stronger today than I initially expected. Even so, its rally from the early morning low was quite subdued and showed little volatility. Since we are approaching the top of the current trend channel (green dash lines) as well as midpoint resistance at 1054 (horizontal red dash line) I think the market is telling us that a break of 30-40 points will probably begin from a short term top later this week.Any such break should hold midpoint support near 1011 (purple dotted line) as well as the lower boundary of the current trend channel. I still think we will see the market reach 1050 or a little higher before this break starts.
Guesstimates on September 14, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1022-1035. A move to midpoint resistance at 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of December e-mini day session trading. As you can see the market has approached but not touched its upper trend channel parallel (green dash lines). I think that after the reaction that started today is complete the e-minis will continue upward to midpoint resistance at 1054 (red dash line). By that time the upper channel line should be in that vicinity too.The market has had two reaction of about 11 points on its way up from the 987 low of last week. A reaction of the same size now (purple rectangles) would carry down to 1032. There is support at tops in the 1031-34 range there too (purple dotted lines). I doubt that these support levels will be broken by much if at all before the e-minis rally to 1054.
I still think that the e-minis will trade at 1120 by the end of October.
Guesstimates on September 11, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1030-1045. A move to midpoint resistance at 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Guesstimates on September 10, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Switching to the December contract today which is trading about 4 points below the September contract. Today's day session range estimate is 1020-1035. A move to midpoint resistance at 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I remind you that activity will switch into the December contract tomorrow. Dec. is trading about 4 points below Sept. at the moment.I think the market is on its way to midpoint resistance at 1054 (red dash line). By the time the e-minis reach that level they will also be bumping up against the upper parallel of the green trend channel. For the moment I see support near yesterday's day session high around the 1025 level (red dotted line). The biggest reaction on the way up from 991 was 11 points and a drop from 1036 of that size would stop at 1025 as well.
A comment exchange with Ziad
Guesstimates on September 9, 2009
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1022-1035. A move to midpoint resistance at 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Update
Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I think the market will reach midpoint resistance at 1054 (higher red dash line) within a week or so. That short term upside target is also near the upper parallel of the green trend channel I have drawn on this chart.Meantime midpoint support is at 1015 (lower red dash line). The biggest break in the move up from 991 has been about 11 points and a break that size from today's day session high would stop near 1014 (purple rectangles). However, my best guess at the moment is that we have seen the low of the day session and that by the end of the day the market will have rallied to 1030 or higher.
Guesstimates on September 8, 2009
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1018-1035. A move to midpoint resistance at 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.
QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.
October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.
SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.
Hi Carl,
Good read on the markets, but what doesn't make sense to me is how you are managing positions. You had very high conviction that the low would be somewhere in the 990's with an initial profit target of about 60 points, and yet you were not willing to tolerate any heat and thus kept bailing out and repurchasing higher. Instead of being in near the low, which you called correctly, you are now in when the potential move is half-way over. It doesn't make sense why you wouldn't be willing to sit through heat near your projected bottom, and thus miss most of the move up.
I've found that when my conviction is high and trade location is good, getting the trade on is the priority... not trying to time the exact bottom or top.
Ziad
9/09/2009 11:29:00 AM
Ziad:
You have to remember that I am posting trades on a public blog that is followed by many, many amateurs. Consequently the trades I post are only those I see as very low risk trades - the ones that won't get inexperienced people into trouble.
For my own account I do blog trades plus other trades that reflect my convictions about upcoming swings. In the case you cite I was long at 996 and added at 1002 and am still long that part of my position.
What you see on my blog is only a part of my trading activity.
9/09/2009 11:36:00 AM