Friday, September 11, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of December e-mini day session trading. As you can see the market has approached but not touched its upper trend channel parallel (green dash lines). I think that after the reaction that started today is complete the e-minis will continue upward to midpoint resistance at 1054 (red dash line). By that time the upper channel line should be in that vicinity too.

The market has had two reaction of about 11 points on its way up from the 987 low of last week. A reaction of the same size now (purple rectangles) would carry down to 1032. There is support at tops in the 1031-34 range there too (purple dotted lines). I doubt that these support levels will be broken by much if at all before the e-minis rally to 1054.

I still think that the e-minis will trade at 1120 by the end of October.

5 comments:

solrac said...

And just who are you calling an amateur?!!!

Just kidding...I am guilty as charged.

Thanks for sharing your analysis.

I am enjoying your book & I look forward to the next one.

solrac

F&H Painting said...

When drawing the upper trendline from a one point high, why do you choose the high of 8/28. It seems you could have chosen 8/25 or even 8/21 (not shown). Is it arbitrary?

Aneo Designs said...

Thank you for your sharing your analysis
What will happen after we hit 1054?

Aneo

Market Karma said...

For what its worth, I sold out a bunch of my longs today. Not everything but a large chunk and will switch to a shorter time frame for trading this capital. I just see too many obstacles for the SP500 between 1063 and 1120 plus cross winds appearing in the bond, FX, oil and implied vol markets. -MK

Joseph said...

Hi, I sold my CDN Banks 2 weeks ago, good trade and sold 1/2 my OILs Thurs, knowing or believing that Fri Sept 11th would bring OIL down... Well it did by $3 but my Energy stocks went up so I left money on the table... Many are saying we Peak on the 1Sept 14th or 18th.. then down, then back up till mid OCT. Others say down till Mid OCT and up till late Nov. Im watching the USD, if it brks 75.50 then market is going to fly. Watching VIX, if it brks 23 then mrkt will fly.

Carl, whats your thoughts about the dates and timing I provided above. I will be quite up front, their not my calls due to I am not a pro when it comes to TA/EWT etc. I just try my best and take advise from others along with my own TA and skill..then I make a call : )

Thanks for your feedback, much appreciated
Joe