Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Confirmed Bull Market!

Check out my latest post on The Art of Contrarian Trading.

6 comments:

Kishore said...

Carl, you surely chose the right day, i.e. DOW down 180, for declaring confirmation of a bull market.

You are a confirmed Contrarian!!

Epicure said...

Well Kishore It certainly beats all those talking heads on cnbc that always move with the heard

Carl..you are refreshing in a day like today.

Kishore said...

Carl, today I have hedged my short positions with longs. At least, I shall lose no more!

Please do let us know when the bull market is over, so I may sell the longs.

My honest admission: Despite what you have been saying, I never had the guts to have naked longs in this market. But then, the naked shorts have been devastating.

As I have never been so wrong before, I can really appreciate the confidence that you have shown over several months in holding on to your bullish views! Congratulations!!

lilies said...

kilshore,
to being able to sell your longs mean your hedge is losing money ? (put=0,worhtless), i can never understand how people can hedge and make money, but then maybe that's why i don't trade :) , i always run this and that scenario my by husband , and he always ask , isn't that the same as holding no position ??

Kishore said...

lilies, I hedge ES shorts with YM longs and you are absolutely right about it being equivalent to holding no position.

However, there are some advantages as compared to no position.

1] It keeps you neutral and alert to both sides of the market.
2] You wait for the market to go to one extreme or the other in order to remove the hedge.
2] You don't have to use stop loss orders. Personally, I have had bad experiences with stop loss orders as they are like sitting ducks.
4] Hedging gives me psychological advantage as I don't have to realize the unrealized losses.
5] Hedging helps me to trade counter-trend and protects me against sharp trend reversals. Personally, I have been burnt more by sharp trend reversals than anything else.

However, it is always better to listen to your husband. Good luck!

Dave Narby said...

Pretty disappointing you didn't approve my comment on the fundamentals of this market.

The fact you won't acknowledge them turns you from a contrarian into a contrarian indicator!

Good luck to you.