Friday, September 04, 2009

Guesstimates on September 4, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 995-1010. Any strength above the 1010 level will mean that the market has started its move to 1054. In the meantime I still think a drop to 980-85 is likely before the move to 1120 resumes. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.

QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.

6 comments:

extrader said...

Carl,

Just wanted to say thank you for all ur info each and everyday... I visit ur blog daily and it is good to get another traders point of view... I must say u have been right most times, although some days i disagree with you, but overall, you do a great job on this blog!

Wish you can share ur ideas and thoughts with us on a more detailed basis, but I know u have a life outside of this blog... anyway, wishing u a happy and safe holiday weekend!

ex

MaverickUK said...

The S&P futures move to 1009 gives a target of 982. Most likely a 2 day move to get there.

Kishore said...

The VIX has dropped from 29.50 to 25.50 in the last couple of days. Yet, the market has hardly budged. I wonder what the significance of this is, if any?

dcatlowpj said...

I don't think that Carl has more time to do that, Extarder.

I listened to his Interview.

What I was saying yesterday is that I do not EXPECT him to share every bit of what he knows..if he did, he should charge for it. This is not meant to be a purely educational site. Some sensitive soul called me a terribly wonderful name yesterday, thereby offering me a promotion to a level I have yet to have achieved..thanks. I think it had something to do with a four-legged animal known for its intelligence and great climbing skills.

Anyway, I did not mean that contribution to be any more than it said: Carl does not have time to sit here and type up his individual trade entry reasons, unless he feels like it.

Buy his book, and that will be payment enough. That is what I said yesterday.

Also, pay attention to his range boxes...they are awesome. SURE, I would love to know how to draw those myself and some days I think I might have clue....but, I am not a math guy.

Anyway, eat it up. This site will teach you more about Swing trading on ranges, and other stuff I do not fully comprehend.

extrader said...

Dcat,

I would buy his book if i was a swing/position trader, but im not... I like to daytrade the emini and unlike Carl who likes to get those big +10pts gains, I like to scalp for 2pts and let one cnts trail... If it was a daytrading book, certainly would buy it, but not into the longterm views!

dcatlowpj said...

Hi, Extrder,

I see what you are saying and understand. I WANT to swing trade but have no gonzo's...yet. From Carl's perspective, he has an account and the mentality handle swings...you take some heat for sure.

I am planning to be a scalper with more contracts averaged in on pull-backs...re-entries and then swing into more profits.

I think that if you are achieving two points of profit as your goal and achieving that, then you are somewhere in between a pure scalper (3 to 6 ticks) and a swing trader (4 plus points)....I am not sure of those numbers, but from the forums I have attended, most of the amateurs are scalpers.