Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Headed for 1020

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The Chicago purchasing managers number came out at 9:40 am this morning and triggered a high volume, downside breakout from the trading range of the past two days (blue rectangle and red arrows). I think this means that the drop from the September 23 top at 1075.75 has further to go.

I have drawn a descending trend channel on this chart. Over the next couple of days it reaches down roughly to 1020. There is midpoint support at 1015. I now believe that this correction will end late this week or early next in the 1015-1020 range (green oval).

12 comments:

andi said...

i have to commend carl for changing his view quickly..good deed carl.

extrader said...

Looks like the Highs are in for the year and for the Bulls... sub 1000 next up for the SPX

MaverickUK said...

Carl I think the market is saying the tops are in. The FTSE did a double top today as well.

Fermin said...

Andi,

Could you please find some time to post your guessimates and trades? I am totally convinced that you can consistenly beat Carl... please share your endless wisdom with the poor mortals!

Fermin.

M said...

Maverick,

Carl has said we're going to 1120 by the end of October on countless occasions. If the action today is an indication, he may miss that call. Time will tell.

Kishore said...

ES has been trading in a narrow range of 1044 to 1043 for about an hour. The market is taking bets from both bulls and bears. Then it will break in the direction that causes the most pain to most.

Moritz said...

Hi Carl,

According to some calculation that I have done SPX is going to 1090-1100 begining of October and that will be the top.

Best,








Moritz

vinaydh said...

Top callers out in full force. Some folks never learn. I do not know what kind of TA says that market is about to top?

vinaydh said...

S&P goes to 1200 by year end. Take part in the rally or be on the sidelines. Nasdaq will surpass 2007 highs.

Kishore said...

vinaydh, "what kind of TA"! It is the TA that bears have invented for themselves, to sooth their itch for magic.

zuptown said...

I agree...all these TA bears drawing lines all over a chart or counting waves and now they think that, based mostly on these lines, they have tradeable edge in mkt. Sheesh.

xd said...

your 959 buy should be 1059