Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Scraping bottom

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. I think the drop from the 1038 level is over. Today's low rests on the lower channel line, is just below midpoint support, and the drop from 1038 has been only slightly bigger than the August reaction (purple rectangles).

The market has absorbed yesterday's supply shock remarkably well. I think a move to 1054 will get underway next week (n.b. the U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday).

2 comments:

DeathBySavagery said...

"The market has absorbed yesterday's supply shock remarkably well."

Wow... that's all I can say... wow.

Monday's drop was huge. Anytime during the rally, the bulls would have been buying the drop like madmen the next day, and we would've seen significant retracement.

There was "good" (as in "green shoots" good) economic news both Monday and Tuesday. But yet even after yesterday's huge drop, the market ignored the news and was flat/slightly down today. This is in marked contrast to the past months, when the market surged on positive news and shrugged off bad news.

If you cannot see that the fundamental tone of the market has changed dramatically over the past week, then I think you need to put the charts away for a little while and start paying attention.

lilies said...

dear DeathBySavagery,

I have to come to Karl defense (not that he need any),
all i can say is, china drop 6.5% in 1 day and that's all you will give up a measly 200 points?
as i type this , china is up close to 3%, so much for that correction

maybe the banks will be able to bring this market down, i see some cracks, or maybe it's just wishing thinking on my part
we need Karl to be bearish side before the fundamental tone can change, but until then good luck , LOL