Thursday, September 03, 2009

Guesstimates on September 3, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 990-1005. The next significant move should be a rally to 1054. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.

QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.

7 comments:

writersblock said...

I just wanted to thank you for all your work. Yours is one of the first sites I visit, every morning, and I always try to see how you came to your conclusion, and what effect it will have on the day. And I really appreciate your willingness to put your ideas on the line, by showing us your trades. That takes courage and conviction, two traits I'm sure most successful traders hold.

Kishore said...

There may be another retest of yesterday's low of ES @ 991 during the RTH today.

It will be interesting to see whether 991 holds or breaks.

If 991 breaks, there should be another support at 980 or so.

What the market will actually do, only the market knows, besides Carl, of course!

Carl, you are a grand master, a champion at this game!

valeriobrl said...

...VIX..ready to collapse..on VST..
IMHO.

VIX/VXV 15min
http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/3883848397/sizes/l/

inversorX said...

Hi Carl, at wich point you would change your bullish view?

Wich condition is needed?

I mean, where your view will change.

ty

dcatlowpj said...

OnversorX: please note that questions are not answered here by Carl. He wants to concentrate on his trades, and will not share what his reasons are for his long-term targets on a daily basis...at times he will share his thinking in a longer note to all of us, but so far, I have rarely if ever seen a reply to personal notes here in this forum.

I have many of the same questions. This is a blog for a reference point only and I will not trade "with Carl" but rather take his range boxes in to my playbook and use Price Action, Support and Resistance levels and other charting tools to make my scalp or swing trades. This is NOT an educational site and it seemingly has never been posted as such. He does mention his book and some update references to his other website/blog. Do not expect answers here to any questions, why he puts his ranges where they, why he continues to give us higher-high targets in the shorter term or why he has $1120 as his target within 60 days, or the end of Oct. This is not a site from which to try to day-trade with Carl. Learn from him, buy his book, pay attention to his ranges and then you might prosper by adding Mr Futia's tools to your playbook. Happy Trading.

Kishore said...

Despite rising values of Accumulated TICK, falling TRIN, and a reasonably good breadth of 1158 ADV vs 999 DECL, the market refuses to go up.

Based on short term charts, the market looks weak. Can a weak market rally, before another leg down?

Of course, the trend on daily charts, has been up, and still up, because the trend line on daily charts is far from broken.

Personally, I believe that trend flows from lower time frame to higher time frame charts. Right now, the trend on lower time frames is down.

I try not to second guess as I have been badly burnt and bruised, and thoroughly thrashed, by this irrational, reckless animal called the market.

slip5ham said...

dcatlowpj, you are a grade A jackass, not an educational site are you kidding? Not only does Carl not owe you squat, but "When will your view change?", is not even close to a reasonable question. If you get off your rump and do more than just read the latest post from Carl looking for a free lunch, you might get that education you claim not to have found.

Carl, book is awesome and I hope you follow through with the one on reading the tape.......