Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. After Tuesday's supply shock the market has traded quietly in a 10 point range. I take this to be very bullish action. Why?
Normally a supply shock transfers a large number of contracts from longer time frame traders to relatively short term traders, more contracts than the short term traders collectively want to hold in their long positions. Consequently prices must subsequently fall quite a bit further. They must drop to the point at which longer time frame traders again become willing to take over the long positions that short time frame traders don't want to hold. This usually involves a big move in prices. Supply shocks typically kick off extended trends that have few reactions.
When a supply shock is instead followed by a balanced, quiet, and trendless market I begin to suspect that things are not as they seem to be. It begins to look like the selling from longer time frame traders was really an attempt to drive the market lower, to shake out weak longs from their positions and to attract short sellers to the market. The fact that the market is trading sideways and has not rallied is more evidence that the longer time frame bulls are trying to tire out the weak bulls and entice selling by short term bearish traders. All the while these longer time frame traders are building a long position which will cause a very substantial up move from current levels.
But first I think the period of accumulation that began Tuesday afternoon will end with a terminal shakeout. I expect the market to make a quick trip below the 990 level, probably into the 980-85 range. Tomorrow's employment number should provide a good excuse.
Terminal shakeouts are usually followed by fast moves in the opposite direction. I think the e-minis will move quickly back above the 1000 level on Tuesday (Monday is a holiday in the U.S.). This should prove to be the early stage of a move to the 1054 level.