Friday, September 25, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I have adjusted the trend channel slightly (green dash lines) to account for the fact that the high so far was made after the Fed news on Wednesday. I see strong support in the 1030-35 zone (purple oval) and I think we shall see an important low develop there early next week.

At the moment midpoint resistance stands at 1045 (purple dotted line). Much stronger midpoint resistance stands at 1054 (higher horizontal red dash line). Any strength above that level would mean that a move to 1120 is underway.

I still think the 1120 level will be reached by the end of October. If enough divergences show up at that time I will start looking for a break of 100 points or so before the bull market resumes. But it is still too early to make any trading plans based on the possibility of such a break.

4 comments:

extrader said...

If we close near or below 1039, then my target for next week is 1032.

Moritz said...

Hi Carl,

Could you please explain how do you derive your estimates for the day range?

Thanks,




Moritz

nj1270 said...

When you say "enough divergences " how would you realize that we have enough divergences? Could you teach that to us? Thanks

Teich said...

Hi Carl.

I noticed that after the mild supply shock (not on a huge volume) taking out the LOD and bring ES to 1036 on Friday, the bounce was not impressive. The close was also not impressive either, closing at the LOD-level on Thursday.

I agree with you that ES has to fall further to attract more buyers.

The good news is that we no longer saw on Friday the huge supply shocks we saw on Wed and on Thur. The narrower trading range on Friday seemed to be confirming this. The system posted an NR3.

Have a great weekend.