Monday, April 24, 2006


NOTE: has been experiencing serious technical problems today so my posts are being delayed if they are published at all. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

Here is a 15 minute bar chart of regular hours trading in the June S&P e-mini futures.

The market this morning broke below the 1312 low of April 20, thus giving the whole drop from the 1324 high a classic three phase look. Today's low at 1309 remains above the 1308.25 level which was the last reaction low on the way up to 1324. These two facts are hints that the drop from 1324 may be ending.

Let's look at the third phase of the drop from 1324 in more detail. I have highlighted the swings within this phase in green. You can see that the successive downswings have been getting shorter. Morevover, the last rally reached 1315 which was higher that the high of the last reaction on the way down to 1309. Finally I think I see two successive higher lows within the past couple of hours. These considerations all suggest to me that 1309 will hold and that the market will head higher tomorrow.

I still expect to see the S&P's trade above the 1330 level this week.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for continuing to post your analysis of the various markets. I suspect that stocks are alternating up and down waiting on a signal that crude oil has peaked. Do you agree? The WSJ has noted that much of the recent crude price spike was driven from the options markets. Any thoughts on the link from stocks to oil?

Alberto R. said...

I think market will continue to go down, i have an inversion point on 27 april, calculated with the time cluster function of advanced get. Do you use this software?
Thanks for your valuable work Mr.Futia