Monday, April 03, 2006


Here is a 2 hour bar chart of cash trading in the US Dollar - Euro pair.

I have been looking for a drop to 118.90 because the move down from point d has not yet assumed the classic three phase shape, illustrated by the purple d-e-f-g pattern. The rally from e also assumed the three phase shape which led me to believe it was complete. But then the intial drop from point f itself is a clear three phases and has been followed by a rally which as yet does NOT look like a completed three phase affair. This makes me think the market is likely to rally further, probably to 122.35 or so, before it begins a break to complete the three phase correction from point d. If this view turns out to be right then the downside target for the next break will probably be above 118.90.

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