Friday, July 11, 2008

Guesstimates on July 11, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I think we shall see a 1230 print before a rally to 1310 begins. And any such rally will be the first stage of a much bigger advance to 1500. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed upward to 118-00. 

September 10 Year Notes:  The notes are headed for 117-16. 

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.   

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165. Support is at 133. 

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 915. 

SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 1950 level. 

Google: It is beginning to look like the reaction low for GOOG is in. A move to 750 or higher will be the next development.   



Anonymous said...

what gann said about financial press: Do not pay attention to the financial press. That said, GOLD should continue the current rally for the next 7 to 9 days. I expect prices to reach 973-976 and eventually 987, but from there on strong resistance should be found on the way up, i think. I cannot exclude very shorterm spikes around the 1000 level since blow offs are common stuff in commodities. The EURUSD currency pair is heading higher in my view after an expected 6 days sideways correction. First target would be 1.5800-30 which is nothing else than the upper line of the dot-dashed upward-channel. A break higher would then target 1.5909 high recorded on July 3d. Wherever it goes this rally I do not expect it to last more than 6 days and to put the 1.6019 all time high in danger. I expect crude oil to head for 96 but needs to break below 121 support first. 144 is resistance and any attempt to break higher will find a wall of offers i think. Good trading all ! and week-end to follow !MC

Anonymous said...

Well if it's any further indication, my sentiment at looking at today's lower futures is pretty darn low.

Anonymous said...

1500 in your dreams Carl. Late August to early September is the bottom for this year. The market cycle is down. We may get a rally near the end of month july but it's back down. You need to re-evalute your work a little. There's NO way you'll see 1500 before September.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I’m still long from 1244.50 since this past Tuesday. Today, my support is at 1235.70, therefore we should not see prices move below that level. If prices do break below that level, then I will close out my long position and reinstate my short position.

Thank you.

Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...


everyday you re-evaluate your numbers and print a lower low on the S&P... just a week ago, you said that the lows in Mar will hold and since that blog, i just see the S&P go lower and lower! If S&P drops to 1230, I think we see a bottom at 1200... And the probability of it going to 1500 seems far fetched by the end of year! that means a huge rally would take off of 25% in 3-6mths!

Anonymous said...

hi Carl,

I am a bear and have been for a year. Luckily my portfolio is much better for it.

It does look like we are approaching a bottom, but I do not know how or why you are drawing the line at 1230. BTW, I said a bottom not the bottom.

IMO the fall or spring will provide better buying opportunities.

Anonymous said...

If this was 1929 Carl would keep posting till 1932 to catch the bottom.Not a big problem for a paper trader but means bankruptcy for a real trader. Rather than blaming Carl everyone should decide on what type they are and behave accordingly.As for Carl he claims to make a living but looking at the blog I doubt it. Good luck to all.

Anonymous said...

hello everybody,

i think/hope that in case of falling through the 1220 in SPX a basebuilding will start in the area 1170 - 80, the 50% fibonacci-retracement from the rally after october 2002 till october 2007, also important cause of the double top built in feb 2007.

In case of some upward days i am awaiting Resistance at 1266 - 70, an a basebuilding near 1230.

I wish you some good trades and a relaxing weekend.

Remember the keywords of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: DON'T PANIC!


Marko from Germany

Anonymous said...

Every now and then I visit this blog for a few laughs.

Oh don't worry, folks, Carl will give you one of his "I told you so"'s when the market inevitably bounces, only to resume its journey down in this big bad bear market.

I must agree with anon comment 09:33 AM

Anonymous said...

Why are some of you guys thinking we're approaching any sort of bottom. Keep trying to catch the falling knife and you'll end up without any fingers. This is an out and out bear market. What's sending it down is new news that keeps getting worse.

I just can't believe it's not hitting home.

Carl you have been trying to buy this thing since 14,000.

Carl Futia said...

10:39 comment was written with the S&P at 1228.

Anonymous said...

Thank You for Your work Carl.
Starting at 1440 GANN-Angle 4x1 down hits today 1228. I expect to see 1260 +- next week and then we should look downwards again.

Regards from Germany