Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Guesstimates on July 23, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market is getting close to resistance at 1290 and I think the next development will be a break of 40-50 points. Support is still at 1239. I also think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is now at 157.50 and a New York close below that level will mean that the trend has turned downward. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude broke below 133 support so I think that it is now headed for 100. The 133 level is now resistance. 

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 935. 

SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 2100 level. Support is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl,
I'm a long time casual reader of your blog. I know you are getting pounded right now but I still value your opinion because your theory is so unique. Other than contrarian data from magazines, newspapers, etc, I'm curious if you use any fundamentals to determine your bias? And, were you shorting on the way down in 2000-2003? Do you ever short?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

This morning we're fast approaching the first selling pressure point of 1292.70, give or take a few ticks. A pull back from this level is very likely, if not only a period of some consolidation before prices can advance higher.

Thank you.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Carl, for your comments and analysis. You've been extremely helpful in helping me learn about markets--and in helping my middle income family make some money along the way! It looks like you're spot on with S&P resistance at 1290. Keep up the good work!

Jeff Redding

Anonymous said...

I sometimes have to scratch my head when reading some of the comments in this blog and see how much people still relies on fundamentals and correlations between different asset classes to make bold statements about future market behaviour. These guys are always the same, they come out of university where they had been taught for a huge fee about all this (sorry to say) shit and since they have a bachelor/master/phd in Finance in their hands, most of them think arrogantly they know everything there's to know about the markets. Wrong ! I have learned running my personal account to the ground that only experience, investigation,observation and study of market action will lead to a correct and practical theory for trading success. All the rest is just good stuff for a talk with friends who don't understand the markets and never will because they don't care about. Good trading all ! MC

Win said...

Cheers, MC! Having been in the former camp, I mostly agree.

Carl, I don't know if you'll get your move down from 1290. We may have to wait till 1310. There was surprising strength the market yesterday and today. Also, from Baidu and Amazon results, it appears that the Qs are going up tomorrow.

Thanks for all your help, Carl. I know it got rough out there for a while; glad you hung in there.

Anonymous said...

I would like to reply to MC yesterday,
Yes I look at correlations and fundamentals very closely . It is not all rubbish - at the end of the day the fundamentals drive the markets and there are a lot of correlations that work ie gbp usd is highly driven by interest rate expectations more than anything else, when gold goes down , the eur currently follows,eur jpy was for along time very correlated to the stock market. Yes these correlations change over time but they are invaluable.
I am not suggesting these comments were directed at me but I do follow fundamentals.
I am not a guy, I am 45 yrs old, I have been trading since I was 21 and I made a 7 fig sum to date this year at home with 2 small children. I dont have a degree in finance but one in geography from Oxford and another from an Indian post grad university.
The market has all sorts of people and some of the greatest investors/ traders of all time follow only fundamentals. The one that comes to mind currently is Jum Rogers who only trades fundamentals and accepts his short term timing is not good.
Catherine

Anonymous said...

Catherine ...fundamentals are key. They are the very foundation, IMHO, that everything else rests on. But one can be overly pessimistic and gloomy. IMHO, one must watch for remedies that cause previous fundamentals to evolve and change. I think flexability is a good thing to have in the market place. Kind regards, Janet

Anonymous said...

Catherine...I like many others on this site sincerely appreciate the personal insight that you provide, along with other frequent participants on this blog...Thank you, PM, MC, WIN, Janet, all the haters with their vitriolic diatribes, and most of all carl for the wonderful site that this is..If you have never heard it, you heard it hear first...THANK YOU...EVER THE STUDENT...

Anonymous said...

Hi Catherine - I do agree with you it is not all rubbish, and I look at them as well as to have a general idea of what the perception of the crowd might be at a specific moment. Said that, i repeat that very little of all the theories taught at university it is of use to the trader neither to pinpoint entries and exits in the market nor to survive in the market. By trader I do not mean the long pull traders like Jim Rogers, Soros and people like them who haven't done their money trading every day behind the screens but by manipulating prices forming big pools of money in the face of the naive crowd looking up at them like gurus. Remember, It has been well said that truth is stranger than fiction. I am happy to hear that you have done a 7 fig sum this year and have 2 small children. I have two small children as well, and i am 30. I wish you good luck in your trading and God bless you. MC

Anonymous said...

"give me a guy who's poor, smart, and unemotional over these harvard types anyday"

gordon gecko

p.s.

Who says Jim Rogers only trades on fundamentals. Don't believe everything you hear. I know for a fact he hires some of best market technicians in the business.These guys are no fools and don't tip their cards.