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I have no dog in the race but, so far, the bears have been right. That said, I am now 80 percent long and looking for a turn.
But what does it prove Carl if you're mostly wrong in your analysis. And besides....a daytrader bear is different than a LT bear.I'm LOADING the TRUCK right here and Going 200% long .
Um ... Go White Sox! Does that count as a bullish comment?As a bullish-side note, I am pleased to see that the RUT and MID haven't joined the panic party.
Carl, is there a point where if reached it would invalidate your forecast?
What amazes me is the number of infantile comments. What don't you understand about the word "guesstimate"? Dr. Futia is being upfront and public about his current view and I appreciate that.If you want an infallible guru, go watch Cramer.
Hi Carl,I took a short at 1234.50 when prices broke below 1235.70, which was my support point.I have since reinstated my long position since prices are now back above the break point.Great blog, keep up the fine work, I enjoy reading your comments.Thanks.Kindest regards,PM
Carl,Excellent counter pointI have been a bear for a year and will remain one, but I have been looking for a rally here soon and your informal count adds to the rally coming soon. The new lows were rather high as well.still does not mean we can not have 1 to 3 more down days first.Again, I love your blog.
Carl,Does it matter that you're finally right about a bounce if you've been wrong about oil/gold and stocks non-stop for what seems an eternity?I can't believe you still have any money left.
I think this blog has its fair share of cheerleaders, and frankly, one gets tired of reading the "Go Carl, You are Great" comments [especially when his guesstimates happen to be right once in a while, i.e. a lame market reversal].The fact is that the anon comment above 11:44 PM is absolutely correct.I don't visit blogs to be a cheerleader or to put a blogger down.I stop by here once in a while to see what he thinks, and I've found him to be a great contrary indicator!No offense intended, really.
Come monday my gut feeling tells me we crack 11000 decisively to the down side. Kind regards, Janet
Dear 1:06 PMYou have left similar comments many times in the past. Funny thing is, you never, ever offer your own views or attempt to peer into the future. You never offer one shred of real time evidence that you can use me as a contrary indicator. Why? I think we all know the reason.It is pretty obvious that you get your jollies from putting down others. This no doubt is the only way you have to make yourself feel superior. The one thing I am sure of is that your real abilities do not lie with figuring out the markets.If you disagree, you are welcome to prove in real time just how wrong I am.
I wasn't following the markets during the tech bubble pop, but do you think sentiment was better in 2001 than today?Around 9/11, I would imagine sentiment must have been much worse than it is today. The market rallied sharply after that point, but then made a new trend low the next year. Why couldn't this happen here?
percentage bulls at 5 year low...percentage bears 5yr high.....nyse short interest 5yr high..
The US indices are very oversold by any breadth measure I can find, and at extremes reached in washout panics such as the summer of 1997, the summer of 1998, September 2001 and every intermediate term bottom since. The usual suspects of sentiment measurement (AAll, for example) are bearish, and the anecdotal ones (magazine covers that Carl has posted, the posts on this list) are pretty extreme, too.VIX is beginning to push into extreme territory and if it is going to really spike higher this is the level from where those spikes into the upper 30's to upper 40's usually begin. This would almost assuredly mark at least a momentum low.I have never been able to predict price levels and I have never seen anyone who can do so consistently (I have been trading for 25 years), but I have found that identfying the condition for a price low is possible. I think we are very, very close to a tradable low in terms of time. Price-wise we could easily drop another 5-8% in dramatic fashion.Whether or not you are able to make money in the present enviroment (or any enviroment for that matter) will be determined 90%by your plan, strategy and tactics, and at most 10% on any special predictive abilties you or anyone you follow may possess.I am long and presently in wait and see mode. If there is a panic I am buying more. I am a trader and do not marry postions. I will dump some longs into rallies and put them back on in the declines. My gut says I'm early, but my strategy and tactics allow for that.
narayana that is what I think exactly. I think we are going to have a bounce now for a month. Then another bear market leg and bottom around October at 1060-1100 for the S&P 500. After this bottomwe are going to have a fast rising market into 2009 and eventualy another bear market in 2010-2011. That's my 2c
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/11/business/20080711_FANNIE_GRAPHIC.htmlAs you can see this time, the mess is real. It is not abount setiment. IN 1998, the mess is in other country's soil. This mess is in US, much large. Just common sense, the drop will be much large than 22%.
Appreciate your work Carl, but I must disagree. Bullish% on S&P at 27%, $VXO hit 33 and naz and rut still hanging in there. Okay stuff for correction but this is a bear. S&P could not close over 1240. We can't even get a close above 10 dma. Goog sitting on major gap and below 50,20 and now 10 dma.Weekly volume on SDS, QID very low, put to call in normal range. A lot of people I know say they think its going down but haven't sold. "Its too late to sell" With 401k statements arriving and bank failures being announced, they may change their mind this week. When bullish% drops to 18 and $VXO (my preference) hits 45 or higher then I think a decent tradable rally, before final bottom but for now the risk is way too high for my taste. Can we get a rally to 1300-1316, you bet on short covering.But I want to see close above 10 day on NYSE for more than a day first so there is some kind of support. But I think it will be years before 1500 is seen again. 1080-1320 S&P is my range for rest of year with 1080 seen first. Picking bottoms is a hazard to your wealth in a bear and Cash is a position.A lot of #s and option expiration this week, should be wild. If your a "longterm investor" they are cheaper now than they were in October.Small short position on S&P and RUT since close below 50dma,will cover on close above 10day. Goodluck to everybody out there.Jim S.
Now that the government is going to buy stock, I guess my previous message is probably wrong short term. Capitalism is now dead in this country, the liberals win. Better buy a wheelbarrow to take your money to the store in a couple years.Jim S.
Carl, we're not quite there. I think we will get to the 50% retracement of the 2002-2008 rally in the DOW - not far off. That will also be closer to two equal declining legs within the drop from 10/07. AND, the daily timing cluster I've mentioned is only a handful of days away. Further, I don't think the low was in on Friday because an aspect of the clustering is that the indicated week is that of 7/14-7/18, being 144 weeks from the October, 2005 low in the DOW (end of huge triangle occured there).
I will be taking a HUGE profit on my 200% long BUY on Fiday posted above @ 1:40. Life is sweet baby. Yeah.chester
chester , be careful as i hear you doing the "mashed potatoes"... if you don't know what i mean , read Marty's Schwartz "Pit Bull, Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader". Take your profits and run home what-ever you are referring about on your 200% profit. Market's going to reverse, and sharp, i reckon. Good luck ! MC
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