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The long drawn out GL formation is playing true to form.Regards,Huw
Carl,I have a question which I cannot understand for the life of me... Why does it take years for a stock to go up 100%, and can drop 50-100% in less than a year?Newbie
fear is a greater emotion than greed
Carl,I think you have convinced me you are correct in the short run. I have gone from 100% cash to 75% cash as I see a lot of potential for a rally coming as you have pointed out.This market seems to be just dropping to far to fast.Although longer term I remain a bear.
Huw, what is a GL formation?
Mr Futia,Please tell us what you think about the bullishness in this cover from a major financial mag:http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/12/barrons_housing_cover.gif
Carl,GOOG reports on Thursday. AAPL next Monday. AAPL earnings are going to beat, as we all know. If GOOG beats and AAPL guides higher, the shorts are toast. Either way, I think we'll know a lot more on Thursday evening.
Carl, I guess you are just a stubborn dude... keep on trying to catch the knife... geeze, what a dumb thing to do... just let it go... we could be in this dodrum for a loooong time... if this is a bottom, is going to be just an intrim bottom anyway, go back in recent history and look at the daily chart, anything of a major bottom even look remotly like the "what you think is bottom"? NO, so, market will keep on dropping... yes lot of bad news is baked in, and yes, there are tons of people is shorting this market and spreading rumor (like today wm,ncc). And YES, there are whole bunch of people looking for capitulation. But you got to understand, LOT OF PEOPLE feel that a bounce should be due, like yourself and me included... even hard core bear like "Tim knight" at slope of hope feeling sorry for bull and he think there should be a bounce due... That's the problem, we are in limbo and might just slowly drip down like chinese torture... too many people short and too many people think a bounce is due... you'll just be wasting your money like you've been doing and keep on dropping your target like you've been doing and never get it right. And, yes, one day you going to say "OH I told you so, see I call the right turning point!" But at what cost? And after how many tries? And after how many downside target change?! Geeze, wake up and don't be stupid, and keep trying to catch this knife... Even if it bounce tomorrow and you've caught the bottom, I won't agree with your method, you've changed your target many tims already, and that in my book is a stupid thing to do...
"you've changed your target many tims already, and that in my book is a stupid thing to do."Dear 8:29 pm:Thanks for giving me the benefit of your experience. I freely admit that, when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
Carl,You need to incorporate one indicator to your analysis: 21day EMA of CBOE equity only put/call ratio. This one reveals how people act with their money on an aggregate basis. Other sentiment indicators, such as Hulbert News Letter, Investors Sentiment, magazine cover, or google statistics, just say what people are talking or thinking about. Actions are GREATER than Words. Lawrence McMillan has been using this indicator for many years with good results. If you would combine this p/c ratio with your Domed House theory, I'd expect much better results.WZ
Carl,it looks like indymac could just be starting for banks to come out and ask for goverment help. i read an article on yahoo finance where it says more than 150 banks could be on their way to bankruptcy incluing washinton mutual and wells fargo. any thoughts?
As you can see, future broke through the support already..."What do you do, sir?" What YOU should do is wait for sign of reverse then trying to call for bottom. It's just annoying personally to me, that you keep calling for 1500... is stupid, yes market will eventually get to 1500 after this bear market is over... maybe by the end of years, or 5 more year or 10 more years? Who knows, maybe never, just like Japan! And like many other said, what do you think in this enviroment and our economic situation would result in 1500 your time frame?! Just because of sentiment and whole bunch of short need to cover?? Today just prove the point, short don't need to cover and market can keep on going down for much longer then what most people expect, even the most hard core bear think we should have bounce (I'm very bearish and I think there should be a bounce), but NO, there's no bounce, market just keep on grinding down... So I hope for your money sake and for many others sake, stop calling the turning point, be more realistic... and wait for a turn around sign before calling... I know your site is all about prediction, but keep on predicting like the way you do, you'll be looking stupid... pardon for my language...I personally feel that US of A is in a deep trouble... I don't see how this market would turn around and go to your 1500 or 1600 you've bee predicting... now the government has taken on more debt, much more debt all the debt of irresponsible banker and lender and stupid borrower! I can only see living standard to go down... whoes to pay for all these debt and they talk about strong USD??!! While taking on more debt??!! I can see our children will have tough time... I can see more county and state go BK... no more money for education, inferstructure repair because all the money goes to pay for all the debt that OUR STUPID GOVERNMENT keep wanting their citizen to borrow to spend to keep the image of American way up! Keep the stock market up! Keep all the bubble up... Because deep inside, they know once the music stop, all bubble pop and that's the end of western power... and NOOOO of course they can not let that happen... so they keep on pushing citizen to borrow more and spend more... what a stupid government!
I freely admit that, when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?Dear Carl, nice to hear from Lord Kynes however facts are not changing, it is a bear market and S&P behaves accordingly, that is falls every other week.For a shortseller that has been the fact for the past 8 mnts.
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