Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Guesstimates on July 22, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: Support today is at 1239. I think that the market will make it up to 1290 before a break of 40-50 points develops. I also think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.   

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude broke below 133 support so I think that it is now headed for 100. The 133 level is now resistance. 

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 935. 

SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 2100 level. Support is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

i think the eurusd is headed for 1.5600 and then lower below 1.50 in agreement with Carl's first guesstimate. Crude oil is headed for 121 and 96 after while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward and heading for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC

Anonymous said...

yes , I agree and good trading to Carl

Tim Knight

Anonymous said...

Carl :) We have a rally and only 1 comment. Where all those anonymous 'traders'?? I'm sure Edwardo is doing great :)


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

The only question I have is where are all those nay sayers, the ones who said the market will be kissing the pavement today, i.e., Edwardo, Janet, et al? I guess they're hiding for another day.

I can appreciate varying opinions, but for posters to insult and bash the host just because they disagree is never appropriate, what goes around comes around.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

you funny P.M. we were down 10 then up 17. Won't make much difference when we dive 50 on s&P. I would not buy this rally cannot go much higher than 1300-1320. Lets see you talk about naysayers in the end of 2009 when we are much lower than were we are today.

Anonymous said...

LOL...I'm here, and just because I may have a differing opinion does not make me a basher of the host. Differing opinions are what makes the world an interesting place. I'm thrilled the market was up today as I do not short stocks and am long on many. I just state it as I see it, that is all. Oil down today I think was the catalyst for todays move up and rightly so. I think oil will continue to slide because it is IMHO in no man's land. As for the market, we are no way out of this mess yet..however I liked the market action today and I do think it is trying to put in a bottom. Only kind regards to the host and respect, Janet

Anonymous said...

Good call on the S&P. I am with it. But as I wrote earlier as soon
as the S&P rallies the Dollar strengthen and Gold etc. goes down. Is that the support levels you are talking about? If the S&P really goes to 1500 then the Dollar will surely break through the supports. I am not so sure about Gold and Silver. You changed your direction on Crude -just in time.
Good morning from Down under

Anonymous said...


Didn't expect today's reversal at all. Not that I'm not happy about it, just don't understand. Any explanations?

Anonymous said...

Concerns regarding the Fannie & Freddie bailout, to give the Treasury $800 billion to front-run the housing industry seems to speak to the dollar collapse. It sends shock waves through the bond market. look at TNX. Could we count on the taxpayers to fund this? Are they solvent?

Anonymous said...

SNP Short term trend is up , Med term trend is currently up to 1320-1330 for next 2 weeks.
Question is - the long term trend sill looks down to me, not up. I have been short since Sept last year basically continually and am flat now from yesterday. I still see another leg lower in Sept/Oct to new lows but there is no question private equity is out there now buying distressed assets.
Re: hartinvest - there is a current short term correlation between snp (up) and gold/usd down but this is pretty recent.
Bigger trend has been snp up, usd down, gold up
This makes sense big picture - the only possible way that Carls scenario can be right is a massive money printing inflationary bubble in the US - ie print money, people buy snp with devalued money, usd collapses, gold rises a) because it is priced in usd and b) because it is a hedge against inflation.
If this does happen for another cycle, the next crash will be far far worse than this one.
Best wishes Catherine