Monday, July 07, 2008

Guesstimates on July 7, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: Thursday the market briefly took out the March low at 1253 but then closed back above 1260 and above Wednesday’s close. The US markets were closed Friday but in electronic trading the e-minis held above Thursday’s low. All in all it looks like the market is about to move up at least to 1290 and more probably into the 1310-20 range. I think the stage is being set for an extended rally up to 1500 later this year.


QQQ: I think the Q’s will end their drop near 44.00 and begin a rally to 55.  


TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are now headed upward to 118-00.


September 10 Year Notes:  The notes are now headed for 117-16.


Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 158.00 was broken yesterday. I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80.


Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.  


XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165.


GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 915.


SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 1950 level.


Google: GOOG will drop into the 500-510 range and will then begin a move to 750 or above.  



Edwardo said...

So, are we on regarding my bet? A case of wine to
me if the S&P 500 doesn't make 1500 this year, and
one to you if it does.

Carl Futia said...

My dear Edwardo:

I am not as dumb as you think I am. Why should I accept a bet that I would have to pay off on even if the S&P reaches only 1499?

How about this instead. You win if the S&P drops below 1150 on or before December 31, 2008 and I win if it rallies above 1380 on or before December 31, 2008. If we both win or lose we'll call it a draw?

Edwardo said...

I don't think you're dumb, but I think your judgement
regarding any rally potential from here, i.e. that 1500 number was, well, choice. I would have given you the bet at 1499, as I'm not that rigid