Friday, July 18, 2008

Guesstimates on July 18, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I expect the rally from 1200 to reach the 1275  level before any significant reaction of 30 points or so sets in. At Tuesday’s low there were many bullish divergences in the advancing issues numbers which themselves are still at extreme “oversold” levels. This together with the gloomy state of sentiment convinces me that this rally is the first stage of a very big move which will carry the market to 1500. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.   

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude broke below 133 support yesterday so I think that it is now headed for 100.  

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 935. 

SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 2100 level. Support is at 1750. 

Google: GOOG got hammered after its earnings release yesterday afternoon. However the 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

A bearish diamond pattern is visible in the eurusd 60min. chart. A clear breakout on the downside, should accelerate prices down to 1.5750. However, my first target is 1.5600. Crude oil is headed for 121 firstly and 96 after, while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward and heading for 697 USD. Good trading all and w-end to follow !MC

Anonymous said...

I must admit you took a lot of abuse for sticking to your call for higher prices..

although it did not go exactly to plan the oversold nature of the indicies was unsustainable, hence the high probability of a counter-rally..

i agree with your call for possibly 1275 and then a pullback..

i think others should take a leaf out of your book and present some analysis rather than just shooting down your targets!

Well Done and Keep up the Great Blog!

gb, UK

Anonymous said...

If oil breaks a $100, game is over, then $60 is the next stop. Oil is headed for $120 firstly, if we break $120, then it's $110, possibly $100. If $120 holds, do not be surprised to see oil approach $160.

Just my two cents worth.

Rick M.

Anonymous said...

I`m long dji to 11600 without sl and TP:)

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Well, Halleluiah and Yippee!!! Okay, I suppose it’s safe to look now. Since we did close above 1242.40, we finally have a confirmed buy signal, according to my timing model. I would imagine that there will be many who will refuse to believe the coming rally and will take new short positions only to be squeezed out as the market continues to rally. This will fuel the rally even higher. Although there is no guarantee that we’ll get close, but IF we see the market rally to 1317.70, give or take a handful of points, we can expect to see heavy selling appear once again.

By the way, in my early morning post to your blog I said I reinstated my long position at 1255.00, but just to set the record straight, it was actually 1245.00, but why quibble over ten points. Hey, not that anyone would question this, but if anyone checked the time I submitted the post to your blog the 1245.00 makes better sense, since 1255.00 was not even traded for another two hours.

You have a great blog, I enjoy reading your comments and everyone else’s two cents.

Thank you.

Kindest regards,


Abel said...

Hello CarlFutia,

I must admit that based for pasted year you are very, very good with yout work, but I guarantee for you that you are not going to see QQQQ 55 or higher before we actually take one impulse more down.

47 - 47.50 area is decent target now for reactionary wave, 50 absolutely maxium and unlikely.



Anonymous said...

Reported by The Big Picture;

WSJ: Jitters Ease as Citi, Rivals Show Signs of Bottoming Out

NYT: Hope, and Hints, That Financial Stocks Have Finally Touched Bottom

Barron's: Buy Banks -Selectively (cover story)

As per "Crystallizing Events", this elevator is going down.

Thanks for your Blog, Carl.