Thursday, July 03, 2008

Guesstimates on July 3, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The initial rally from the 1261 low carried the market to only 1293 instead of the 1310 level I was looking for. Consequently I think the yesterday’s break will bring the e-minis down into the 1230-40 range before the market turns upward. A higher close today, regardless of the level of today’s low, will mean that a very substantial rally is underway. I still think we shall see 1500 later this year.

QQQ: I think the Q’s will end their drop near 44.00 and begin a rally to 55.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are now headed upward to 118-00.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for 117-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 158.00 was broken yesterday. I think the market is on its way to 163.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50. From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165.

GLD - August Gold
: I think the market is headed back to 1000.

SLV - September Silver
: Silver closes above 1760 yesterday so I think it is the way to the 1950 level.

Google
: GOOG will drop into the 500-510 range and will then begin a move to 750 or above.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

No sh** sherlock! Give that big of time range one of your target bound to hit... I can say the same, by 2009 we going to hit 1500... Of course after bear market we going have another bull market and is going blast the old high away. Anyone can make that prediction. Anyway, in the mean time, it seems they are on sell the news mentality right now... all bad news and market going up. I don't forsee market going break mcuh higher then 1350 if this rally is sustanable... And then down we go again. Most likely the rally will end around 1310 and down we go. But I still stand by my theory of breaking the March low on SPX before we have any substancial rally...

Anonymous said...

Carl
I like your blog but I think a lot of people are in denial about how bad things are - same here in UK.
I think we go to 1100 this year in the snp.
Japan is your guide - 18 years later and houses are still 50% of what they were in 1990. Stock market - 40,000 becomes 13,000 now.
Its a bad omen.
I think we see 800 in gold before 1000.
Saying all that, I still read you everyday as it gives me a chance to weigh your view against others that I read.
Thank you Catherine

Anonymous said...

Carl don't let your emotions fool you i would say just by reading from what you wrote last day and this morning on the eurusd ! Market is non-directional since it cleared 5341 low on the 8th May 2008 and is evolving into a more and more complex sideways correction, but still i have reason to think that your first call even if pretty agressive of the eurusd at 1.40 to be correct. Time proves everything. MC

Anonymous said...

Problem with a lot of the commentators here is that they are looking for fundamental reasons for higher stock prices. Sorry dudes, but the market is not 'logical' or 'rational' Ever since oil hit $60 everyone has been saying that if it goes to $70 $80 $90 $100 etc. that will be the straw that breaks the camels back. Well, guess what, we are at $140 and the world hasn't fallen apart. You still find idiots in the US and Canada willing to buy V8 powered vehicles. Tell me why you need a pick-up truck to drive around in the city, pelase? It is North America that will have to make adjustments to high oil prices, not the other way around. Welcome to the world market fools!

Marty H.
Toronto Canada

BH_Trade said...

Carl, I don't understand why some modestly higher close today is indicative of a substantial rally brewing. I would think we need a close above yesterday's failure highs.

Anonymous said...

Well, I think the previous lows are going to be challenged and if broken on high volume look out below. I also think "plain fundamentals" is what will cause the market to bottom...not doomsday adverts, TA, etc..Kind regards, Janet

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I think you are wrong about Euro as usual.I believe todays decline below 1.57 marks the top for Euro and a long term dollar rally will kick off. 1.63 is a very very minuscule and remote possibility.
Any rate hike without the support of a strong economy will not add value to a currency and this is exactly the case with Euro. US will recover sooner than Euro-zone and based on PPP USD is already very cheap.Good luck to you and your fans.Someone has to lose money:)

Anonymous said...

Big picture the usd will still lose value due to a government prepared to support an economy by printing money and inflating away value. Short term there might be a rally in the usd but most of the world is awash with usd that they dont realy want.
I rather doubt that the US will recover faster than the Euro. Certain areas notably Spain and Ireland have the same problems as the US and the UK ie over inflated housing, bad debts but other parts especially Germany who have had no house price rises and no debt are very strong.

Anonymous said...

I just don't get it. Why is everyone so ready to offer their 'fundamental' reasons? Don't you guys get it? The day-to-day trading is more technical based than you might think. It's kind of funny to see you guys beat up on Carl for offering his 'technical' targets ... I say flush fundamentals down the toilet or go on Kudlow's show.

Natasha Kubincky

Anonymous said...

Re the stock futures still trading. I don't have bid ask quotes but I am seeing price cchanges / Do they trade through to tomorrows usually 4.15 time ?

Anonymous said...

Small sideways move now before the final approx. week and a half of decline to the Fibo. date.

Anonymous said...

Natasha if you have not flushed down the fundamentals you would not be looking to sell crude since it was trading at 80 dollars. Hey it's inflationary but the hell with it sell gold cause next big move will be down (the first time I read it gold was trading at 700)?The real rates are negative-lets buy dollars? The cover of a magazine says the US housing market is falling apart-hurry lets buy a million dollar condo?Is that how we shall trade?

Anyway, the fundamentals are slowly changing. Yes the world is awashed with USD (that's why it fell to 1.60) but the monetary base has hardly change for the past 2 years and the banks who used to inflate the system is out of the game now.Yield are rising which will support USD. Gold will not see 1000 for a long while and crude will never make to 160.

Carl, I think you have no edge over the market but obviously is a perfect gentleman. thank you.

Sant

Edwardo said...

Well, you got your higher close, which means you are now expecting a big rally, yes?

AJAskey said...

Carl - you should start a "Kick Carl" sentiment indicator. Judging by the last couple threads we are near a low on this metric.

Anonymous said...

I grapple to reconcile fundamental versus technical analyses. I would welcome any further discussion in this regard.

:)

Solrac

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Carl,

Honestly, why o why do you let all these imbeciles abuse you, I would kick all that speak bad about me off in a fraction of a second!!


Jesus

Anonymous said...

The 2008 Forecast basis my main series of Cycles:

1. February 08 will see a retest of the 10/11 Highs

NEVER HAPPENED

2. April 08 will be the Low of the Year, No Ifs and Butts

NEVER HAPPENED

3. Another higher Low is due 3 months Later by July 08

NEVER HAPPENED

4. Rocket Launch to new All Time Highs afterwards.

NOT LIKELY

5. 2008 will be yet another UP Year.

NOT LIKELY

Ian_G

HIS DATES NOT BAD BUT DIRECTION IS A FAILURE.

Carl Futia said...

Jesus:

"Honestly, why o why do you let all these imbeciles abuse you, I would kick all that speak bad about me off in a fraction of a second!!"

You forget that this is, among other things, a contrary opinion blog. The crowd is at its most abusive and most intolerant when it is about to be the most wrong. I find it useful to have a record of these comments to illustrate this point and at the same time to help those who want to apply the theory of contrary opinion in real time.

slip5ham said...

It's pure entertainment to watch the negativity build to this crescendo and then just burst. There is nothing worse than getting caught short because you convinced yourself that things were so bad the markets could only go down. Why do these people seem so upset, if they traded their own views they would be doing very well right now, perhaps a little gloating but not this vitriol. At the end of the day these bearish types cannot maintain the impartiality necessary to just trade the charts.

Anonymous said...

A sentiment indicator is an added reinforcement for marking turns but really not necessary for trading. I know because i don't even use it to swing trade. It's just not technically pure and is open to manipulation by those who are aware of it. It's a 2 edged sword. Better to just concentrate on a sound technical system and avoid the distractions. To me --and I don't want to insult anyone--those who rely on sentiment maybe have a system or an understanding that is still evolving.

FWIW

I expect a rally sometime next week that may last a couple of weeks and that's as far forward as I'm going to look.

Win said...

I agree with slip5ham. If these guys just disagreed strongly or felt that Carl was useless, they wouldn't waste all this time a) coming to this blog, and b) commenting.

Anonymous said...

Carl I do read your blog everyday cause in my opinion you are the best contrary indicator (not trying to insult or mock). Everytime you call for a bottom in S&P and a top for euro,crude,gold and silver it has paid to be on the other side of the trade. Now that you have changed your targets I would like to have a friendly bet with you. Neither euro nor crude,silver and gold will make to your targets and all will head south.If not I will apologize sincerely.Slip5ham and Win, you seem to trade Carl's ideas better than all of us. Can you pls share your results and enlighten us?Jesus keep peeping the planets but don't forget Pluto is not one any more.Best,

Sant

Carl Futia said...

Sant:

Are you the same guy who commented that he was fading my S&P buy at 1342 which I later sold at 1407?

Please tell us when you fade me in real time so we can all appreciate your talents and see what an idiot I am.

Best

P.S What's the URL of your blog?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

No I am not. I had just one post before and the second-third posts are above, other than those 3 I have none. I have not called you an idiot but I don't recall you objecting someone else calling other commentators "imbeciles". I have simply /clearly expressed my ideas about the markets and contrary indicators just as you have.Time will show who is right and will be rather easy to measure. Meanwhile if that is how honest critisism is treated all I can do is wish you luck. Thank you.

Carl Futia said...

"No I am not. I had just one post before and the second-third posts are above, other than those 3 I have none"

Let me get this straight, Sand. You say that:
"Carl I do read your blog everyday cause in my opinion you are the best contrary indicator "

but claim this is just "honest criticism"? Then you get huffy and offended when I ask you to prove to all of us in real time that I am the best fade on the web?

I think you are all talk - a cowboy with a big hat and no cattle. Why not get into the arena with the rest of us and prove how smart you are?

Win said...

Sant - I don't trade currencies, only equities. I shorted the SP, when it met Carl's 1440 target. In my analysis, SP was at a ST top. I was looking elsewhere for confirmation and found it with Carl and in a couple of other places. I don't do boxes very well (yet) and find it hard to see SP500 1500 in the future, but I base swing trades on volume and breadth indicators. So it helped that Carl was looking at 1440 and then a drop to 1300 - because although I could see the 1440 top, I wouldn't have known how to see 1300.

I also shorted SU (Canadian Oil Sands), when WTIC hit 139 because I expected at least a ST top. I posted here at that point thanking Carl - shorting SU was based on my analysis, but it helped that Carl was also expecting it to fall. That was a very profitable ST trade.

On the other hand, I went long a few days ago and that hasn't been profitable so far. I thought that AAPL was going to bottom early last week. At this point, I am losing on that trade, but haven't hurt too much because I have day traded the bounces a bit. Also, I didn't expect the SP to test March lows or I would have held more more Puts. Carl's advice didn't help here - but you know what, all in all, it does.

I base my trades on my own analysis, and then see what Carl and a couple of other traders I respect think. On the whole, I'm doing ok.