Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Guesstimates on July 8, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market’s rapid swings up and down over the past few trading days are part of a base building process which will support a move back to 1500.  In the meantime the 1235 level is support. A move above 1265 should continue upward to 1310 or so.


QQQ: I think the Q’s will end their drop near 44.00 and begin a rally to 55.  


TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed upward to 118-00.


September 10 Year Notes:  The notes are headed for 117-16.


Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80.


Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.  


XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165.


GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 915.


SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 1950 level.


Google: It is beginning to look like the reaction low for GOOG is in. A move to 750 or higher will be the next development.   



Anonymous said...

Carl , i still cannot really understand why you have changed your call on the eurusd so drastically from 1.40 to 1.63 just because the pair had a shortterm break above 1.58 ? A deeper explanation would be very appreciated because i still firmly believe that oil will find a lot of offers anytime it is above 144 and the euro will be rangy for the next few days before an attempt to break higher might take place, but in any case i don't think the all time high is in danger. gd trading all !MC

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

On or about June 10th I posted to you that my trading model went short, and I took a short at 1365.00 that day... my model has not yet issued a buy signal, but it is telling me that we should see serious buying enter the market at 1242.80 (give or take some points)... well, it looks like we have arrived at that level... therefore, I have covered my short positions and took long positions at 1244.50 early this morning, I couldn't quite grab the 1242.50 in time... no buy signal has appeared, but it looks like we could see a buy signal in about another week or so, provided the SPs remain above the 1442.00 level...

Once I see a buy signal, I will post it here, with your permission...

Thanks for your comments...

Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

Dear PM:

Looks like you are the patient type who likes to wait for buy/sell signals. Fell free to share your inputs into your trading model.


Uri P.

Anonymous said...

I have disagreed with you a lot over the last year as I am bearish.

I do agree we are heading for a short term bottom and a sharp rally. Can you explain your 1235 bottom on S&P?

I am having a rather difficult time with this down turn as I do not see a bottom with out higher levels on the VIX, but following you for a couple of years has taught me you reasonably good at getting some of these bottoms. Unfortunately I do follow blindly and have found your explanations in the past to be rather illuminating.

Either way I appreciate the blog

Anonymous said...

Today is 76 years from the Great Depression low of 7/8/1932

76 isnt a Fibonacci number but it is a Lucas number.

Anonymous said...

To Uri P.:

My own personal market timing model is strictly mathematical. It measures price and time as if price were a physical object moving through space without the influence of gravity. The distance price moves is measured in price. Price is the same as distance. Time is measured in days. In this way, my model not only measures price, but it also measures time, which is equally as important as price. As a result, upon any given signal my model also tells me at what price buying and/or selling will most likely enter the market after a major rally or decline regardless of time, and it also tells me when to buy and sell regardless of price.

Although it may sound like it, my model is not a momentum indicator of any sort, momentum is not considered.

My model tells me in advance, although these are never targets, that IF the market reaches a prescribed price or time, then a turnaround is very likely to occur. The time element gives me a “no later than” due date at which time a rally or selling will begin regardless of price.

For example, my “due date” for the current selling is scheduled to end no later than next Friday, July 18th. This due date was already issued by the model on June 10th when I received my sell signal. This means I expect a full blown rally to occur from these levels no later than July 18th provided that prices remain above the buy zone of 1242.80 (the buying zone mentioned earlier, although I entered a typo in error of 1442.00 in my earlier post) at that time, despite any subsequent declines between now and next Friday.

Was this helpful?

I really don’t care to occupy Carl’s blog or abuse his kindness by explaining my timing model on his blog. If he doesn’t object, then I will be glad to clarify.

Kindest regards,


Esoterictrader said...

Hello PM,

Would you mind leaving your email, or email me at johnshen305@gmail.com, to further discuss your model. I would very much appreciate it.



Anonymous said...

July 7 (Bloomberg)—Deutsche Bank AG, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG say the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain the most in 26 years during this year’s second half. The S&P 500 will rise 18 percent by January, according to the consensus projection of 10 U.S. strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The forecasts are based partly on estimates that profits will jump 50 percent in the fourth quarter after falling for the past year.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.2 percent last week to 1,262.90, coming within a percentage point of a ``bear market,’’ defined as a 20 percent plummet from its peak in October. Based on the index’s closing price of 1,280 on June 30, the average strategist forecast of 1,515 by year-end calls for the biggest rally of any second half for the S&P 500 since Ronald Reagan was in the White House in 1982.

Ian Scott, Lehman’s global strategist, is predicting an advance of 27 percent to 1,630, while David Bianco at UBS says the index will increase at least 25 percent.
The S&P 500’s rebound ``is going to be one of the greatest roars we’ve seen,’’ Bianco said. ``The market has way too many fears baked into the valuation right now. The fear out there is the earnings are about to collapse and interest rates are about to surge on inflationary fears. Neither is going to happen.’’

Anonymous said...

All the above blogs are
in regards to the S&P and
it might just be right as I
am waking up in Australia and see
the market turning up again, just
when everybody thought the oil price is going through the roof.
Luckely this oil price peak came now and taught us all a lesson.
I will drive electric in the future.
Anyway if the S&P rallies from now on then the oil price , Gold and Silver goes down and the US-Dollar goes up. I cannot see this fundamentals changed. Carl, don`t you consider this at all??

Anonymous said...

if you can, please give us an update on rest of the stocks you used to cover..such as BIDU, MSFT, GS, AAPL,RIMM, IBM. sorry to bother you. but loved those previous updates.