Monday, July 14, 2008

Guesstimates on July 14, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am long the e-minis from 1233 and am working a 1235 stop today. I think the rally from Friday’s 1225 low will carry at least to 1290. I also think that it is the first stage of a much bigger move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: Support is at 115-00 and as long as that holds I’ll stick with my 118-00 upside target. 

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 113-24 and as long as that holds I’ll stick with my 117-16 upside target.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50.  From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.  

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165. Support is at 133. 

GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 915. 

SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 1950 level. 

Google: It is beginning to look like the reaction low for GOOG is in. A move to 750 or higher will be the next development.   


Anonymous said...

i think crude oil should fall from here on for a retest of 134, but then eye 121 and 96 on the follow. Any attempt to break above 144 will find a wall of offers ready to depress any bull, i reckon. The euro-dollar pair hit an interim top at 1.5971 before correcting down to 1.5840 early in the morning. I expect a retest of this high with possible overshooting of 1.5971 within the next 3 days. Prices should then fall massively to target 1.5600 very soon and likely much lower in the midium-term range (3-6mths). I do not expect the 1.6019 all time high to be in danger, though. Good trading all !MC

Ruli said...


If it is true that you long E-mini S&P500 @1233 last Friday, seems like you'll be in for nice profit.

Thanks for sharing

Anonymous said...

Carl - How can you square your crude target of 160+ with an S&P rally?
Crude reaching that high will tank the indexes further imho.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl

Sentiment is not enough worse. We will go below 1210-1220 and then we will go up. But I think this will be next week or end of this week