Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Guesstimates on July 2, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The initial rally from the 1261 low yesterday should carry the market back to 1310 or so. I expect to see a number of 2 day rallies and breaks over the next week or so as the market prepares for a move to 1500.

QQQ: I think the Q’s will hold support in the 45-46 range and then begin a rally to 55.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are now headed upward to 118-00.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for 117-16.

Euro-US Dollar
: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude
: Crude is headed for 160-165.

GLD - August Gold
: I think the market is headed back to 1000.

SLV - September Silver
: Silver closes above 1760 yesterday so I think it is the way to the 1950 level.

Google: GOOG will drop into the 500-510 range and will then begin a move to 750 or above.


Anonymous said...

i agree with Carl on the probable SPX next shortterm swing direction which i reckon to be up too. However i see any sustained rally for the next 2-3 mths limited between 1435 and 1483 points. Gd trading all ! MC

Anonymous said...

Carl, Before the time of your post, the Euro had already passed the 1.58 resistance you cited. What's next?

Anonymous said...

has any one studied how long bear markets last usually. It is easy to look at 2000-2002 in terms of time and % decline but that was very extreme. I am curious if carl or anyone else has studied this ? At some point it is gonna payoff big to start scaling in on longer term long positions.

Anonymous said...

Lots of research has been done on the length and term of bear markets...I think the most comprehensive study is done by the folks who make "The stock traders Almanac" it has all sorts of data relating to historical periods, i.e. best six months, years with 8, pre-election, election, post election, mid-term election years...ETC...

Anonymous said...

Carl surely needs to take his meds if he thinks this market is even headed to 1400, let alone 1500.

You may not even see 1400 again this year. We will go to 1100s and then rally 20% into year end.

1500...take your meds please.

Brian R

Anonymous said...

Dow has had 10 months of a 10% decline in chart here....

9 out of 10 times, Dow was higher 6 months later

Anonymous said...


Natives are getting fearful again (and rude).

I think the fear will continue and the market will decline until the oil price declines.

I do not know how one accurately predicts a decline in oil, but that looks like what is driving things to me.

Anonymous said...

I cannot like to believe in
the s&P rally but not when at the
same time the oil is going for
160 $/barrel. If oil is going further up the dollar is going down and with it the S&P and
the rest of the world.

Anonymous said...

No empirical data at all. This blog is fascinating because it's like watching a slow motion car wreck. Gold will top at $700, $800, $ $1000!

What does the 3 Domed House look like now?

I follow a fairly mechanical model for my trading and we are still in bear territory based on accumulation/distribution and any sane measurement of market breadth.

Carl - your decisions seem to be based in emotion. You look at the newspapers and stick your finger in the air and try to determine which way the wind is blowing.

I'm not being critical & hope this isn't insulting. But there does seem to be too much emotion in your investing.

As you know, emotional detachment is key to building a good system.

Good luck & good trading!


Anonymous said...


you must have a sign in your kitchen that says,

'be reasonable, do it my way'

my grandma had one of those in her kitchen..

1500 s&p? bwaa haaa ha hah a ha

I am shorting everything under the sun til I see dow jones 7500. what's that s&p 800-900?

WTF are you talking about, 1500?

you think this economy is in good shape and ready to thunder forward? you should have changed your strategy a long time ago when you finally realized you were wrong on the USO.

and your BS contrarian posts have been wrong over and over. is the Stock Market higher now since the last time you posted that BS when the market started it's decline?

1500 my freakin A$$.

your work is impressive however, even though you're only 50/50, admit it.