Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Guesstimates on August 1, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: I again think that today's day session range will be 978-990. A swing up to the next upside target at 1035 is underway should begin within a day or two. I think the e-minis will reach the 1120 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

September Crude: I now think that the rally from the 58-59 zone is over and that crude is headed down to 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.


Unknown said...

I'm surprised that your contrarian views haven't embraced a long position on the US dollar vs. the Euro. It seems like everybody and their mother loves a short dollar position -- a very crowded trade. Elliot Prechter has this one nailed. I'm certainly watching it.

Carl Futia said...

Hmmm...let's see.

I think the dollar/yen is going up, I think that the euro/dollar will go below 120 after it hits 146-47. On My Chart List (link on right hand side of the blog) I have a chart of the dollar index which, since the low 70's has carried the caption "A new bull market in the dollar - target 110".


Unknown said...

Sorry...I missaw the USD-EUR...i did see the yen. I have too many screens....I had mostly wondered why you hadn't written this up...seems up your alley.