Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Guesstimates on August 26, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1022-1038. A move to 1054 is imminent. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October.

QQQ: Support is at 38.80. Next upside target is 42.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

October Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.


extrader said...


The spy has left 9 open gaps since the rally that started in July.

From the lows in March to the high in June, the spy had 9 gaps and then started the largest decline of the rally. But during that time, only 3 of the 9 gaps were left open before the turn. From the July rally, only 2 of the 9 gaps have been filled. Does this mean we have another 4 gaps to fill on this leg down?

Since the start of the rally in March, the spy has had 18 gap ups and only 8 of those gaps have been filled.


Anonymous said...

extrader, thanks for the "GAPS and TRAPS" posting.

The rally since March is fed by the FED through buying S&P futures during the low-volume overnight sessions. Hence the gaps!

There is no real follow through by investors of these manipulations, except by more manipulation by the FED. They are so scared of a crash that they won't even let the gaps get filled.

Let us see how long the FED can fool us.

Ultimately, the crash will be devastating and the investors will end up holding the bag, along with the tax payers.

Eventually, all gaps will be filled and Match lows will be met or lowered!

extrader said...


I agree with u that the FED has played a major role with this pump up of the markets with their POMO money, but if u trade the markets like Carl does, who cares what is going on, as long as u are on the right side when the market is going up, down or sideways!

Carl, great call this morning scrapping the bottom!

TAE said...

I am not a "trader" like Carl or many others that post. I follow this blog because Carl is uncannily correct in time and amount and that helps me with options writing.

Not knowing the ins and outs of how the futures and cash markets are moved by who and how, can someone advise me how the FED is able to play the SP500 futures markets? Do they have brokerage accounts? How can you see that it is them? I too watched last week as the markets leapt up when it looked like they would fall down and knew someone with powerful capital made it happen. I just thought it was GS, MS, or C.

Anonymous said...

TAE, the FED operates through many agents and cronies who got the tax payers money from the treasury.

You have only listed three. GS is the king agent of the fraudsters.

For a detailed expose of the activities of the fraudsters, please visit

admin said...

Every dog has its day in the sun. It's time like these when you see all these doomsayers resurrected like a mummy. Such as Perchter,karl denninger, zerohedge and others. Read them for entertainment but if you base your trading decisions on them then this market will check you out forever. Market is the ultimate arbitrator so just listen to it. Bears have lost their bearings for sure! It's okay to be wrong but a cardinal sin to be wrong for this long.