Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has reached my short term target of 1035 (red dotted line). A reaction is underway. The biggest reaction on the move up from last Monday's low has been about 12 points and a 12 point drop from today's high would end near 1023 (purple rectangles). Midpoint support based on Friday's small reaction (purpled dotted line) also stands near 1023. So I think it is likely that this market will break to 1023 and then head higher once more. A reaction bigger than 12 points should still hold breakout level support at 1016 (horizontal green dash line).
Next upside target is 1054. This is midway between the May 2008 high of 1442 and the March 2009 low at 666. As you know I think the e-minis will reach the 1120 level, roughly the midpoint of the 2007-09 bear market drop, by late October.
It is worth noting that activity since the breakout above the 1016 level has been low. This means that current prices are not matching many buyers and sellers. My interpretation is that the market has not yet gone high enough to force the pessimists back into the stock market. And the optimists are looking for much higher prices than 1035. So I think this market has to go much higher before volume starts to pick up noticeably.
Carl, awesome calls today...hit 23...great!
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