Thursday, August 13, 2009

Second update

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. As I explained in my last post I expected to see the 1015 level by the close, so I reestablished my long position. The market failed to rally and instead broke below the low it made on the way up from this morning's low (blue dash line). This was not bullish action so I got out of my longs.

If this morning's break was indeed a shakeout with bullish implications I thought the market would hold the red dash line delineating yesterday afternoon's low point. It did so and when it rallied back above the blue dash line the whole excursion below that blue line looked like a second shake out, this time with me as the shakee. So I repurchased half of my position - one unit. If the drop below the blue dash line was indeed a second shakeout I thought the market would not go back below that blue dash line. When it did I got out of my single long unit.

Net result for the day is a small, 5 point loss on 5 units traded. Not very good, but I was trying to be long on what I expected to be an up day. By doing so I was abiding by my principle of always trying to be long when I am bullish.


mvw said...

They shook the trees pretty hard today, both ways. Appreciate the updates.

Unknown said...

I really appreciate your blog. It is the best out there by far and the only one I listen to anymore. I just got quite excited the market was finally taking off at the end and meeting your parameters and hoped that you benefitted because you are so helpful to me. But I think discipline is even more important than missing one opportunity, and you teach that in spades. Thanks again.

mfm9800 said...

Love following your commentary. It helps us all become better traders. Sometimes even when we are right we still take a lump or two. But it's better to be humble and take small loses instead of letting hubris control and really get whacked. Great blog. You're a bouy in an ocean of information.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

I said this morning that we would need a close today above 1013.50 for a confirmed buy signal. Well, we closed exactly on that price. I will call this a confirmation since we actually needed to close above 1013.41 as the numbers were crunched but the futures do not trade in such decimals. I'm long and I expect to see higher prices very soon.


Kindest regards,


janet said...

Market seems to want a 3 to 5% retracement, it's looking a little tired to me and needs that pause to refresh. Of course, when it was going down virtually every day in 2007, it was fine and dandy needing no respite.

dcatlowpj said...

Very interesting trade day...I caught that short in two waves on the break lower earlier in the session and then had to go to a meeting. I missed the entire day's longs. Nice job, Carl, really, as you are a true conviction trader in my mind. I am more of a pull-back entry guy, into the trend on small pull-backs, and trade for 8 ticks. I WANT to become a swing trader. My pal and I watch you every day. Thanks for the updates...wish I had some better way to catch your trades, but I do not have twitter and I have you on my feed to Yahoo but that is delayed horribly.

janet said...

Correction, I mean't 2008.